Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan, exclusively to VK
The main political event of the year in Armenia was the exit from the ruling coalition of "Prosperous Armenia", led by Gagik Tsarukyan.
The main intrigue of the year - the position of the PAP
In February 2011, nearly a year and a half before the parliamentary elections held in May this year, the PAP signed a memorandum with the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (RPA) and the Coalition Party "Rule of Law", which assumes that all three of these parties will be included in a single list for elections to the National Assembly, with a single candidate for the presidency. The name of the candidate was not specified in the memorandum, but it was understood that this candidate would be the current president, Serzh Sargsyan.
However, the PAP participated in the elections on its own. Perhaps such a move by the party, which essentially gave up implementing the memorandum, was the result of certain problems within the government.
At the meeting on November 25, 2011 the head of the opposition party of the Armenian National Congress (ANC), Levon Ter-Petrosyan, proposed that the PPA go to the parliamentary elections independently. Perhaps the ex-president was aware of some problems in power, and his strategy was to split off a strong political group, with its resources and capabilities, from the power. Throughout the year, the PAP was ruthlessly criticized by the government-controlled media and experts.
However, the PAP has achieved a very high result in the parliamentary elections - 450 thousand voters voted for it. As a result, the party managed to increase its solid representation in the parliament - from 26 to 36 members. The PAP not only refused to enter the ruling coalition, but withdrew all of its representatives from the executive branch. The party has not supported the appointment of a new prime minister, but has supported several initiatives by the opposition and voted against the budget for 2013. The classic definition of the opposition forces is voting on two counts - on votes of confidence on the government and on budgets. In both cases, the PAP did not support the ruling coalition. Nevertheless, the PAP does not call itself the opposition, but presents itself as an alternative political force.
A large segment separated from power
The authorities began to have some political discomfort after Tsarukyan decided not to stand as a candidate in the upcoming February 2013 presidential election. After all, 40% of MPs (53 seats out of 131) in parliament, which do not support the actions of authorities, will remain after the next presidential election.
The main problem of the authorities is that the government does not have any intelligible program to pull the country out of the economic crisis and create a sufficient number of well-paying jobs, and there is no program to develop the country's technologies and education. Instead, the government has focused on the tourism sector and the banking and financial sector.
Another problem is corruption at all levels, which literally scares off all potential investors, not only from abroad, but also in the country. The latter prefer to take out their money, not only to foreign countries, but even to neighbouring Georgia, where the business climate is better than in Armenia.
In autumn, the elections to the local authorities were held, in which the republicans won again, but not with such a huge score as before. To save face, the representatives of the Republican Party were forced to vote for Samvel Balasanyan, the candidate from the PAP, in the election for mayor of Gyumri. The fact is that the previous mayor, the Republican Vardan Ghukasyan, discredited himself to such an extent that even the Republicans, despite their complete indifference to public opinion, could not allow him to remain in this position.
Opposition: from the streets to the parliament
The opposition, especially the ANC, was able to present a number of political initiatives on the electoral law and the creation of a new commission to study the events of March 1, in particular the law enforcement aspect. The initiatives were supported by the PAP, ARF and the "Heritage" faction.
For the first time since 1998, the opposition was able to collect enough signatures for a special session of parliament, which was interrupted by the parliamentary majority. A petition to the Constitutional Court accepted for review was also prepared. In addition, the ANC sent a very strong request to the government on the issue of monopolies. The government gave a negative response, saying that there are no monopolies in Armenia.
The fact that part of political life has moved from the streets to the parliament is seen by the experts as a positive development.
Of course, the cooperation between the parties outside the ruling coalition cannot be called perfect, but this cooperation exists. The MPs have signed the series of initiatives, and they vote and act with similar positions. In particular, the government does not get the support of any of the political parties, except for the RPA and the Rule of Law, in the matter of depriving Oskanian of his immunity. All the forces outside the coalition also strongly condemned the recent incident involving listening to a private conversation of two deputies and then posting it on YouTube.
Parliamentary cooperation between the ANC, the PAP and the ARF can be continued, regardless of the results of the presidential election.
Opposition: segments separated from the ANC
In 2012, a major political group broke away not only from the government, but from the ANC. Both before the parliamentary elections and after them, all the political organizations and figures who were unilaterally oriented towards the West left the ANC. Among the breakaway groups there were the Liberal Democratic Party and the party "Republic"; the latter was one of the systematically important parties for the ANC.
The ANC has become a structure with no anti-Russian organizations. However, this "parade" of disgruntled and dissenting groups (including groups who disagreed with the course of rapprochement with the PAP) has led to the fact that the opposition, as well as the authorities, have "shrunk". It is true that the ANC after the parliamentary elections did not take a serious interest in other elections (in particular, in the elections to local authorities, directing its supporters to ensure that they voted against the ruling coalition) and was involved in strengthening its structures.
Issues of democracy
The situation in terms of democracy and civil liberties has not improved in 2012. Parliamentary elections were dishonest again: in fact the election was attended by about half a million "dead souls", if not more, and they "voted" for the Republican Party and the Rule of Law. In addition, the legislation on elections has not been brought into line with reality. The country continues to hold political prisoners, including four young ANC activists.
Foreign policy
For the first time since 2005 in Armenia, joint military exercises with Russia and other units of the CSTO were held. On the one hand, Yerevan remains a military and political ally of Russia, on the other - the Armenian leadership clearly articulates that it is moving in the direction of the EU. At the end of the year statements were made that Armenia was considering joining the Customs Union, but it is not clear how long the study of these opportunities will last: Yerevan has been exploring these possibilities since August.
Still, there are two major issues - the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Armenian-Turkish relations. The country's leadership believes that it was quite right to sign the Armenian-Turkish protocols on October 10, 2009. The authorities do not intend to denounce the signatures, although some opposition parties, particularly the ARF, require either that the signatures be withdrawn or, if these documents are such good ones, that they be ratified. Today the Armenian-Turkish process is frozen not only by Turkey but also by Armenia.
The negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh are currently in a state of "stagnation": the parties have come to a certain point, the so-called "Madrid Principles", and stopped. There was no progress or regression on this issue in 2012.
But another problem appeared – this is the situation in Syria, where there is a serious threat to the security of the Armenian community. Armenia has already received some of the refugees who were able to leave Syria, they received humanitarian aid, but Armenia is not a country that can solve this problem.
