Author: Georgi Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi, exclusively to VK
New Year's Eve for Georgia was unusual for several reasons. For the first time in nine years, there were no festive concerts either in Tbilisi or in Batumi. The new government just has not allocated money for "entertainment events." Open air concerts with the best Georgian performers, and sometimes Western celebrities, had an important function in terms of the "reformers’ team" of Mikhail Saakashvili - they tore the Georgians from their "mossy" tradition, when the New Year should definitely be celebrated at home with the whole family, khachapuri, satsivi and churchkhela. Any deviation from this rule was considered almost a tragedy, a harbinger of trouble and an insult to the family. Celebratory concerts in pure winter air presented a European tradition to the Georgians - New Year celebrations in the streets, i. e., with the participation of the whole world, from the Champs de Mars in Paris to Times Square in New York. The "social budget" of billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili has stopped this modernization for a long period, if not forever.
In addition, 2013 wasn't the first year in the history of the country that Georgians were congratulated by the two national leaders at once. It is unpleasant to recall the most recent case of this kind: 20 years ago, in the midst of civil war, on New Year’s Eve Georgian ex-president Zviad Gamsakhurdia, who lived in Grozny under the auspices of Dudayev, and Eduard Shevardnadze, who was under fire from Abkhazian artillery and North formations in Sukhumi, congratulated the Georgian people at the same time.
Thus, the coming of 2013 has again been marked by an extremely dangerous confrontation of two wayward politicians in Georgia and in the Caucasus as a whole, each of whom believes he is the true leader of the nation and considers the opponent to be "a character from the past."
The New Year's speech by the Prime Minister Ivanishvili was full of the phrases and tenets of a self-confident politician. "Building a national-democratic state, continuing the course to join NATO, creating a budget that focuses on the people, and, in general, making all the dreams" – these are the main theses of the speech by the Prime Minister delivered against the background of the huge palace. The viewers noticed that the "Prime Minister’s Tree" was decorated with icons of Orthodox saints.
"We will treat our opponents decently," the Prime Minister said, clearly implying that the new government is ready to "kill and let live" opponents according to their behavior, in particular, depending on whether they will accept his plan of co-habitation, that is, co-existence till the next presidential election scheduled for October, or choose confrontation with dangerous consequences not only for the country but for them personally.
Ivanishvili’s plan, published a few days before the New Year holiday, involves a serious compromise with the pro-presidential party: stopping the arrests of former senior officials of the administration of President Saakashvili in exchange for constitutional reform. If it is implemented, the head of state is deprived of the legitimate opportunity to dismiss the government (apparently, such a scenario was not excluded), but he can dissolve parliament and call elections. However, until the election of a new parliament, Ivanishvili’s cabinet retains all powers. The Prime Minister believes that in early parliamentary elections his "Georgian Dream" coalition will defeat the pro-presidential United National Movement (UNM). It will be even more impressive if all the levers of executive power remain with the current existing council of ministers and its chairman.
Making a New Year address to the nation, President Saakashvili (like the previous leaders off UNM) made it clear that such a compromise is acceptable to him, but with the condition of ending the arrests and "repressions". The President's plan also provides for the coordination of foreign policy for the successful continuation of the course to join NATO, the cessation of hostile rhetoric and the use of "hate speech", the convening of an investment forum chaired by both the President and the Prime Minister, and the refusal of "Georgian Dream" to try to dislodge the UNM from the local authorities.
In a simplified form, the "response plan" of Saakashvili can be formulated as follows: the President will not make any sudden movements and will quietly wait for the expiration of his mandate in the autumn of this year, but with the condition that the prime minister will suspend arrests of ex-officials, and Parliament will adopt a special act on their amnesty for all crimes, except for murder. In turn, Ivanishvili agrees that Saakashvili will continue political activity as the leader of the opposition party and will try to participate in the elections to the local government in 2014 and the next parliamentary elections in 2016.
The compromise may also mean an agreement to modify the order of the presidential elections. The fact is that, according to the current Constitution, in the autumn of 2013 the president will be elected popularly. That is, given the gradual decline of the rating of UNM and its leaders (including the Mayor of Tbilisi, Gigi Ugulava), the best chance to become the fourth president of the country will be received by ex-parliamentary speaker Nino Burjanadze. But she is a very inconvenient figure both for Saakashvili and for "Georgian Dream": Burjanadze is not linked to Bidzina Ivanishvili, she did not participate in the parliamentary elections of 2012 and will probably not be controlled by the ruling group. In addition, she is an enemy of Saakashvili. But if the president will be elected by the Parliament, the head of state will be the known constitutionalist Vakhtang Khmaladze. Then the compromise will result in a final transformation of Georgia from a presidential republic to a parliamentary one.
