Okhran Sattarov, the head of the European bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
The government troops of Syria seem to overcome the situation in the conflict with rebels, Bakhruz Abdolavand, the German political analysts and experts on the Middle East, told Vestnik Kavkaza. According to him, a series of facts mark this. For instance, the so-called Free Syrian Army had to withdraw significantly from the second major city of the state Aleppo. Moreover, the rebels have no soldiers enough to win Assad: only 50 thousand soldiers out of the 630-thousand governmental army shifted to the opposition – mostly they are Sunnis. Recently Bashar Assad’s army has welcomed 20 thousand more recruits.
Commenting the role of the USA in the Syrian conflict, the political scientist noted that Americans, just like in the Balkans, Afghanistan, and Iraq, failed to estimate the real situation on the spot. The same story is repeated in Syria, the expert said. “Hafez-al-Assad, father of the current Syrian leader, managed to establish a fragile balance between the Sunni majority of the population and many minorities, including Christians, Kurds, Alawis, Shiits, Ezids, Jewish, and Druzs. At the same time, a significant part of Sunni Arabs of Syria (about 60%) stands for Arab nationalism, while initiators of the BAAS party support the secular character of the state development. They do not support the idea of turning Syria into an Islamic state and get benefit from cooperation with Bashar Assad’s regime. The wide layers of the Syrian population do not support ideas by the Muslim Brotherhood, Al Qaeda and other Islamist groups,” Abdolvand thinks.
The German expert mentioned international support which is provided to Assad directly or indirectly, despite seeming isolation. “It concerns not only Iran which is interested in maintenance of Assad’s regime. China and Russia also see only a desire to establish a pro-Western regime in efforts to democratize Syria. If Assad leaves, Russia will have to say goodbye to its base in Turtus, and Moscow cannot accept it. Tartus enables Russia to be present at the south flank of NATO and guarantees Turkey’s friendly attitude on Bosporus and Dardanelles. Plus, there is the other state which is interested in maintenance of Bashar Assad in power – Israel. The Jewish state which is neighboring Islamist Egypt doesn’t want the Muslim Brotherhood to rule Syria. Israel negotiated to Bashar Assad on signing a peacemaking treaty in return for giving the Golan Heights to Israel. If Islamists supported by Egypt and Turkey come in power in Damascus, the negotiations can pale into insignificance. It is interesting that interests of Tel Aviv and Tehran coincide in the Syrian issue,” Abdolvand noted.
The political scientists urged European politicians to think over their positions on the Syrian conflict. “Overthrowing of Bashar Assad doesn’t mean democratization of the state, but its Balkanization: collapse supported by inter-religious and inter-ethnic conflicts. Minorities won’t accept an Islamist model of the statehood. Moreover, Europeans have to think about Israel’s safety. After failed adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq the West can democratize to death one more country of the region,” the experts concludes.
