Alexei Vlasov, exclusively to VK
The main event of the week in the camp of the Azerbaijani opposition was the meeting of the National Council, at which one of the main "drivers" of this association - Rustam Ibrahimbekov – was absent. He, however, sent a special video message to participants of the meeting.
In the absence of the main character the chairman of the Popular Front of Azerbaijan Ali Kerimli took on his duties. It should be noted that his program speech contained a number of quite unexpected moments. For example, endorsing the position of a number of representatives of the European institutions to respect human rights in Azerbaijan, Kerimli suddenly announced that a number of international bodies such as the PACE and OSCE "have lost the confidence of the people of Azerbaijan."
Perhaps the PFA chairman would thus prevent the accusations of the National Assembly of promoting the interests of certain external forces, but, more likely, an opposition politician stressed the relevance of the pre-election communications not with formal structures in Brussels or Washington, which are still connected to a certain range and the rules of the game, but with non-governmental human rights organizations, which have much greater choice of actions and rhetoric against the official Baku. Given this fact, Kerimli’s call to actively cooperate with the international organizations, including human rights bodies that are "always with Azerbaijani Democrats", is understandable.
The names of these organizations, however, are well known not only in Azerbaijan, but also in other states of the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Calling the opposition leaders to "work closely" by a certain relatively small circle of Western NGOs, which have long turned into the tools of a well-defined policy toward government institutions is not new. It is enough to get acquainted with the materials of any campaign in the area from Georgia to Kyrgyzstan. In this regard, the statement by Ali Kerimli seems entirely predictable.
Two more important points were noted by local experts who widely commented on the outcome of the National Council meeting. First, in the near future we can expect a sharp increase in the international contacts of the Azerbaijani opposition, up to organizing special tours for meetings with European politicians and representatives of international organizations. There is no doubt that this area will involve maximum resources, because the purpose of communication is to advance the creation of "the image of the campaign” in the Western media in particular". In this regard, the National Assembly is on the way of the Ukrainian experience of the Orange Revolution - it does not matter how transparent the election campaign will be, it is important how it will be presented in the media space.
As for the second point, it is related to the expectation of new protests in Baku as the most profitable media platform for "information security" of the campaign by the opposition. One can assume that the focus of these actions will be made not on political slogans but on the social aspect. It appears that representatives of the National Council are going to make this theme a key for the promotion in the upcoming period before the presidential election.
However, the question remains: will there be single candidate or more? The previous meeting has not provided an answer to this question – ostensibly, for reasons of a formal nature. However, it seems more likely that the agreement on the key issue is still not reached, and the opposition is trying to reach a consensus which in the current situation is reduced to a very simple problem - someone has to put up and smother his own voice. Judging by the fact that the issue is delayed, the situation is not as straightforward as it is shown by the leaders of the National Council.
