Yuri Kramar exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Massive protests have been taking place in Turkey for more than a month. They began because of the rearrangement of Gizi Park in the capital, however developments showed that it was only a trigger.
Now protesting activists set different demands. For example, they demand not to adopt the antialcohol law which requires a ban for selling alcohol at night. However, this demand is not key. The main goal is, at the least, the resignation of Premier Erdogan, at most – resignation of the government and early elections.
At the same time, the real targets of the protesting activists are not demanding formal democratic procedures, but gaining power which the opposition lost in the beginning of the century. The ruling Party of Justice and Development gets simple majority in elections, which is converted to simple majority in the parliament. It also wins all referendums on changing key constitutional provisions.
The popularity of PJD and Premier Erdogan didn’t come from nowhere. In recent decade the indexes of the economic growth in Turkey have been one of the highest in the world and sometimes surpassed even China’s. 2010 was an absolute record – 9% of GDP. The index grew from 2002 to 2012 – from $3 thousand to $11 thousand per person. However, this year the economic pace reduced – about 3%. But other developed countries, including European, demonstrate an economic fall. At the same time, Turkey has the lowest unemployment rate – about 10% only. Tourism, manufacturing industry are rapidly developing in the country; energy product transit becomes more and more important. I.e. there are no reasons for massive protests in this situation.
What about external factors? The Turkish government accused only currency profiteers, including George Soros, who benefited from fluctuations of Turkish currency and securities at the world stock exchange, which were caused by political instability in the country. Such crises do bring profit to stock gamblers, but can they finance civil protests? Of course it is possible – for instance, Soros was involved in supporting many “color revolutions.” However, as for Turkey, such a point of view wasn’t voiced either by international and local mass media or the official authorities.
It seems the main driving force of the protests is the beliefs of their participants. The growth of indignation seems nonsensical in the context of the economic success only at first sight. The history has a lot of bright examples. The Orange Revolution in Ukraine in 2004 took place in the context of the GDP rapid growth by 12%. In the 1990s when hard market reforms took place, Russia didn’t experience serious disturbances. However in 2011-2012, after overcoming the world financial crisis of 2008, the events on Bolotnaya Square occured. The basis of such protests is not a classic revolutionary situation, but the fact that the opposition realizes that it loses chances to gain power through democratic elections. It is happening in Turkey today.
To be continued
