Yuri Kramar exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Mass protests have been taking place in Turkey for over a month. They began because of the rearrangement of Gezi Park in Istanbul, but developments showed that this was only a trigger.
See Part 1 http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/politics/42446.html
Liberals and the left-wing forces which joint a situational protest union represent the majority of the population in the big cities, while supporters of the government live in the provinces. This provides hope for a victory by the protesting forces, but not in fair elections. Public opinion polls show that if elections took place in the near future, the PJD would get about 45% and be ahead of their opponents who support secular views. At the same time, the elections can be recognized invalid; the opposition can demand recounts of votes and a revote in general – a scenario of classic “colour revolutions.” The streets would be full of protesting people. The army, where hundreds of generals and top officers have been arrested in recent years, wouldn’t support the police.
There is another important component of “a colour scenario” – preparation of public opinion in the West and growing pressure applied by the leading countries of the EU. The media and politicians express more and more concerns about using force against protesting people. As if the Turkish authorities have a choice – when mass revolts, attempts to capture administrative buildings and other things begin, a government in any country of the world would use the police force. But these concerns can lead to economic and political sanctions against Turkey someday.
How can the EU benefit from destabilization of the situation in the still stable and rapidly developing neighboring state, not mentioning “following human rights”? First of all, it is about direct economic bonuses. For example, it is redistribution of tourist flows from Antalya’s resorts to Italy, Spain, France, and Cyprus. Problems with producing cheap but quality Turkish goods will be beneficial to European competitors as well.
Geopolitical interests of Europe in weakening of Turkey shouldn’t be ignored either. Nobody needs strong neighbors who provide an independent policy. Moreover, Turkey shows an example of significant economic achievements in the context of European stagnation; it looks like a rebuke to the whole current policy of the EU and can make voters turn their backs on the current political forces in Europe. However, if Turkey became less stable, the factor would pale into insignificance.
However, the Turkish political system has always been characterized by independence from foreign influences. So, whatever the foreign attitude to the development in Turkey is, their results will depend on Turkish citizens and politicians.
