Georgi Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi, exclusive to VK
The presidential elections scheduled for October 27 will take place soon. The election campaign is erupting and promises to be a stormy one. Despite the overwhelming victory at last year's parliamentary elections by the coalition of "Georgian Dream" led by Bidzina Ivanishvili, the outcome of the presidential race is not a foregone conclusion. Moreover, the elections may surprise and aggravate the situation with very unpredictable consequences. One sign of the reality of such a scenario was the sudden resignation of the CEC Chairman Zurab Kharatishvili.
VK reports that Mr. Kharatishvili surprised even his closest colleagues. A couple of days before the breaking news, there was no indication that he would leave his post. Note that in the current issues of the functioning of the CEC there is no contradiction between the ruling coalition and its main rival - the president's party United National Movement (UNM). They have long agreed on the rules of the game and divided the commissions almost in half, causing resentment among the other players.
Kharatishvili was not directly involved in the process of "electoral bargaining" between opposing teams, but only executed the law. It is largely thanks to his talent and ability to please everyone, to keep the necessary pause, not to run up to the confrontation and to avoid sharp corners that Zurab Kharatishvili was able to maintain the image of an "honest broker." So why did an official with such a good position suddenly resign?
Naturally, in Georgia versions are not lacking. But they all are limited to the recriminations of the ruling party and the opposition. Both sides suspect that Kharatishvili was under pressure. Deputies from the UNM openly blame the environment of the Prime Minister which allegedly used for this purpose the Interior Ministry, security services, resorted to blackmail and even direct violence. But where are the facts and evidence - direct or indirect? Nothing like this was unveiled.
In turn, the leaders of the "dream" claim that Kharatishvili was influenced by a president who is "trying to discredit the elections in the country and to sow panic and chaos." But it is also unlikely. Mikhail Saakashvili is deprived of leverage and is living out his political time, just saying that after October 27 he will be a "political pensioner." In addition, the chaos in the country is disadvantageous for him because he may be the first victim of it – former political prisoners now throw rotten eggs at the incumbent president when he visits restaurants. Many have vowed to take revenge on him for everything and are just waiting for the right moment, that is, for permission.
Although Zurab Kharatishvili is often accused of cowardice and irresponsibility on both sides, he indeed guaranteed compliance with the rules of the game, and his resignation is not beneficial to any of the major players. Compliance with the rules of the game does not guarantee that the outcome of the elections will be acceptable for the losers and the whole process will not lead to a new confrontation. Here, apparently, is the secret cause of unexpected and unexplained resignation of the convenient official: Kharatishvili realized that the current political calm in Georgia is just calm before the storm.
The candidate of the ruling coalition, Georgi Margvelashvili, does not have sufficient resources of the electorate to win in the first round. That is, to determine the winner, for the first time in the history of the country, the authorities may need a second round. The rival of Margvelashvily will be either ex-parliamentary speaker Nino Burjanadze, categorically opposing any "cohabitation" with Saakashvili’s team, or the president's party candidate David Bakradze. If the latter goes to the second round, Burjanadze, relying on the fanatical opponents of Saakashvili among the "political prisoners" eager to "restore justice", may call upon the most active part of society to street protests.
Moreover, sociologists argue that a politician who will come second has a good chance to beat Margvelashvili in the second round, even if he lags behind in the first one. This is the configuration of the social base of all three major parties.
In addition, there are the repeated statements by the Prime Minister Ivanishvili about his decision to leave his post immediately after the presidential election, which is perceived in the community as an attempt to "wash his hands" and shirk responsibility. In such a situation Kharatishvili decided to leave in time and to absolve himself of responsibility for future disasters that may well shake the country again after the next crucial elections.
