Georgi Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi, exclusively to VK
The approach of the October 27 presidential elections in Georgia has seen= an increase in tension and the apparent nervousness of major political players. Among the symptoms there were not only the latest scandalous interview and eccentricities of President Saakashvili (remember his sensational revelation in an interview to the TV company "Rustavi-2" and a performance on board an American warship), but also clear worries among the ruling coalition "Georgian Dream".
Recently, the leader of "People's Party" Koba Davitashvili announced that he is quitting the parliamentary majority. But he became an MP only due to Bidzina Ivanishvili and his desire to include in the electoral lists of prominent politicians, distinguished by years of struggle against President Saakashvili. But Davitashvili was so adamant against the head of state that found the policy of "cohabitation", that is, the peaceful coexistence (at least until the presidential elections) between the teams of the prime minister and the outgoing president, unacceptable.
Davitashvili is not the only prominent politician who split from the ruling coalition. "Dissident" was also the leader of one of Georgia's oldest political organizations, "the Green Party of Georgia", Georgi Gachechiladze. He explained his decision by the parliamentary majority's refusal to fund "the Green Party". The authorities referred to the failure of the party to participate in last year's parliamentary elections. However, Gachechiladze, like his colleague from the "People's Party", did not resign from Parliament, which he got into due to the list of Ivanishvili.
These incidents show how futile the attempts to create a sustainable "Dream Team" of all more or less recognizable politicians only on the basis of their opposition to the authorities are. Such a tactic was chosen by Ivanishvili in his political activities after their start in October 2011. However, Koba Davitashvili and Georgi Gachechiladze were not formally members of the GD, but they were merely "co-opted" in its electoral lists ahead of the parliamentary elections on October 1. But the problem is that the coalition itself was formed by the same principle of "popular front against the common enemy" that cannot guarantee its longevity.
The founders of the ruling coalition were four organizations - "The Republican Party" (RP), "Free Democrats" (FD), "National Front" (NF), and, in fact, "Georgian Dream".
After the parliamentary elections, "Republicans" have received the post of chairman of parliament (Usupashvili took it) and head of a key committee on Legal Affairs (Vakhtang Hmaladze).
Leaders of "Free Democrats" Irakli Alasania and Alexy Petriashvili took respectively, the posts of Minister of Defense and State Minister for Euro-Atlantic integration. Before, Alasaniya did not hide his presidential ambitions, but he was left in the shade after the prime minister gave preference to the current candidate of the "GD" - Georgi Margvelashvili.
As for "National Front", it is not represented in the government, where the majority of posts are occupied by members of the inner circle of Ivanishvili.
But the main thing is not distribution of posts but the fundamental difference in values and priorities: in outlook and liberal socio-economic program, as well as foreign policy aspirations, "Free Democrats" and "Republicans" are much closer to the former ruling party "United National Movement" (UNM) than to their colleagues in the coalition. Now, the factor keeping "GD” together is the total rejection of Saakashvili and his entourage. But what will happen after the departure of the current president? Indeed, the very "national movement" will not go away: it will continue to be represented by a solid minority (about 40%) in the parliament.
Apparently, in the new conditions of Georgia after Saakashvili "Republicans" and "Free Democrats" will cooperate with the "national movement" first on tactical issues, but later their position will be the same on the fundamental issues of foreign and domestic political agenda. Given the ideological affinity, this is the only way. The second part of the coalition already perceives "RP" and "FD" as "aliens" and "secret agents of the national movement", with good reason considering that Bidzina Ivanishvili is closer to traditionalist values, not libertarianism and clear orientation to the West. Thus, the collapse of the coalition, by definition, is inevitable, but it certainly will not happen now or even in the next few months, but only in the new era, when the factor of "President Saakashvili" will lose its significance.
