David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
It seems the current authorities of Armenia as represented by the Republican Party (RPA) have decided to rule the republic forever. This is confirmed by the statement by the chairman of the commission on state-legal issues of the parliament, David Arutyunyan. He assumed that soon a packet of amendments to the Constitution would be presented for an all-national referendum. The amendments require the establishing of a parliamentary republic.
Considering the fact that ideas on shifting to a parliamentary form have only existed in Armenia in the opposition environment since its independence, the statement could be a breakthrough. However, Serge Sargsyan is thought to be a lame duck. And his political future and the future of his supporters seemed dim until “the pilot-balloon” of David Arutyunyan. In the context of the amorphous political field of the republic, such an initiative could be suggested by the Republicans with the one and only goal – to provide the reproduction of the current president through his shifting from the presidential chair to the premier’s chair after the parliamentary elections of 2017. It will enable the current system based on unspoken agreements to maintain power for some time.
Regarding the scenario, we can conclude that changes in Armenia will happen not by spring 2018 in presidential elections, but in spring 2017 in the parliamentary elections. The intention to shift to a parliamentary republic means that the current president has no reliable successor. Moreover, Sargsyan doesn’t hope to find such a person in 4 and a half years. RPA is too disparate to provide the “successor” operation. The last war of dirty materials between Premier Tigran Sarkisyan and Speaker Ovik Abramyan demonstrated only the top of the iceberg of contradictions. At the same time, a presidential candidate beyond the limits of the party can make quarreling republicans unite against him.
Furthermore, the discussion of a referendum on shifting to a parliamentary republic is an exclusive right of the power. Nothing prevents Sargsyan from implementing Saakashvili’s scenario – the only difference is that Armenia has no its Ivanishvili yet. The scenario when Saakashvili promoted a parliamentary system and then lost the elections is impossible for Armenia. This concerns all political forces of Armenia – Kocharyan’s Prosperous Armenia, the Armenian National Congress, Heritage of Raffi Ovanisyan who has almost won the presidential elections. All of them tried to compete with Sargsyan’s RPA and they would have no second chance. The Armenian society was disappointed with these leaders who showed hesitation in a crucial moment.
However, considering the first reaction by new-republican politicians, they are not concerned about the prospect of seeing Sargsyan in the premier’s chair after the referendum. The opposition’s logic seems hopeless – “What is the difference whether presidential or parliamentary elections are falsified?” When the old opposition is destroyed and there is no new one, it is the best time for the republicans to secure their power.
At the same time, there is a threat which frightens the future Premier and his team – youth civil movements. The power cannot “agree” with them in the way it used to. Furthermore, the situation in Armenia may change in the near future. The civil activity demonstrated by the young part of the society consolidates protest forces, and sooner or later the forces will be headed by new people. So, instead of awaiting such a scenario, the power tries to avoid it and change the political system, but not the content. Currently Armenia is a country with a half-presidential system of government; but as all force, customs, tax structures are fully controlled by the President, Armenia is a country with a presidential system of government.
