David Stepanyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
Armenian leader Serge Sargsyan’s statement on Armenia’s intention to join the Moscow-dominated Customs Union and take part in establishing the Eurasian Economic Union came as a bombshell in Europe; even though it was clear before September 3rd that Yerevan cannot ignore Moscow’s interests in the question of integration with the EU.
In November, Vilnius hosts the summit of the EU leadership and heads of the countries which participate in the Eastern Partnership Program. It is expected that the association agreements and agreements on deep and comprehensive free trade area will be initialed with Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, and Armenia. Yerevan has many times stated that in relations with the EU and with Russia it relies on the principle "both”, rather than “either-or”. However, as “both” faced resistance both in Russia and Europe, Yerevan had to change its rhetoric. The result of this was the statement by Sargsyan.
On September 4th a crowd of protesters against Armenia joining the Customs Union gathered near the presidential palace. Participants of the demonstration, organized through Facebook, chanted “No return to the USSR” and stated that they wouldn’t let Armenia join the CU, as it would lead to the loss of independence. There was a brawl between the policemen and protesters. 9 people were arrested. The Secretary General of Heritage, Stepan Safaryan, said that the intention to join the CU was unacceptable due to Armenia’s commitments to Europe. The common dissatisfaction of the opposition layers of Armenian society was summed up by an MP from the ANC, the former prime minister Grant Bagratyan. He said that the problem of membership of Armenia in the CU and signing the association agreement should be solved by a referendum, rather than by one person.
Later that day the head of the presidential administration Vigen Sarkisyan stated that Armenia had no plans to reject initialing of the association agreement with the EU. The politician stressed that Yerevan’s decision to join the CU didn’t mean breaking off political dialogue with the EU. Sarkisyan also disproved the views that the Eurasian integration of Armenia was a result of Moscow’s pressure on Yerevan.
The head of the political studies department of the institute “Kavkaz”, Sergey Minasyan, explained Yerevan’s readiness to join the CU by political reasons. He thinks that Yerevan will continue its European integration, but without commodities and political and financial support from the EU. According to the expert, Armenia has taken a time-out in initialing of the association and DCFTA agreements, as chances for the initialing in Vilnius are small. However, the documents will wait for a right moment.
The crucial factor in relations between Russia and Armenia is still security. No Armenian president can ignore this factor. From this point of view, the economy plays a secondary role. Sustaining losses in the security sphere, Armenia can appear in the situation of zugzwang. Some forces in Yerevan state that Armenia’s security, which is provided today by the CSTO/Russia, could be provided by NATO someday. However, Armenia has no time to wait due to well-known circumstances. If Yerevan rejects integration with the CU, Armenia will have cool relations with Moscow in military technical cooperation. Security determines “the red line” which Yerevan cannot cross. At the same time, if Yerevan rejects the association with EU, it won’t speed up its membership in the CU.
We can assume that President Sargsyan is trying to gain time again. There are too many questions for him both in Armenia and the West. And they need answers right now, because little time remains before the summit of the Eastern Partnership. It seems Sargsyan’s statements won’t lead to a radical change of the course of Armenia and his own party. However, the main goal was reached – Russia won’t change its policy toward Armenia. Moscow again pretends that it believes Yerevan. Whether Brussels is going to pretend as well will be clear in a month or two. At the moment, the EU leadership states that unfortunately, Armenia joining the CU doesn’t require further participation of Armenia in the association and DCFTA agreements with the EU.
