By Orkhan Sattarov, head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
Less than a week is left before the start of the summit of the Eastern Partnership, a program of the European Union to develop ties with post-Soviet states. Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia want fast political association and further economic integration with the EU, but each has its own intensity level.
Professor Gunter Verheugen, ex-Vice President of the European Commission and one of the architects of the European Neighbourhood Policy, has described his vision of prospects of each partner.
Azerbaijan
“Azerbaijan shows great interest in cooperation with the EU, just as the EU is interested in close partnership with Azerbaijan. However, the strategic partnership should not be limited by cooperation in the field of energy,” said Ferheugen. According to him, full-fledged strategic partnership should include modernization of the political system, economy and transfer of values. The problem of energy should not be separated from the range of other fields of cooperation.
Ferheugen has given a skeptical evaluation of the chances for Azerbaijan and the EU to sign an agreement on formation of a deep and all-encompassing trade because Azerbaijan is not a member of the WTO for its own reasons. In Verheugen’s point of view, participants of the Vilnius summit will need to find an intermediate solution for all fields of cooperation. Only then should they make any step towards signing an association agreement. At this stage, they could, for example, simplify the visa regime between the EU and Azerbaijan.
Verheugen noted serious political problems in Azerbaijan, namely the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. According to the professor, the EU always bases on the principle of territorial integrity of states. This is valid for Azerbaijan in the context of the Karabakh conflict. The European Union correlates its actions with principles of the Helsinki Accords of 1975. States refrain from using force and forced changes of borderlines. Verheugen urged the EU to be more active in settling the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.
Armenia
It seemed this summer that Yerevan and Brussels would sign the association agreement in Vilnius. However, Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan announced plans to take the Eurasian integration path, not the European one, after a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in September. In the words of Verheugen, “Armenia announced its determination to join the Customs Union, which is in fact a refusal to sign an association agreement with the European Union. Thus, there are no prospects for Armenia to sign an agreement on formation of a deep and all-encompassing free trade zone between Armenia and the EU. The outlined programs for support of Armenia are pointless now. At the same time, it would be wrong to ‘punish’ Yerevan. They need to come to understanding of the new format of cooperation with Armenia, sending it a signal that the EU wants to continue the dialogue with the state.”
Belarus
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will not fly to Vilnius. Instead, he is sending an official from the Belarusian Foreign Ministry. “There has been no serious progress in the dialogue with this country so far. There is direct dialogue with the NGO sector, not the government. In this context, Belarus, despite the problematic relations between Brussels and Minsk in the political layer, becomes a more important trade partner of the EU every year. Moreover, membership of Belarus in the Customs Union makes the country a window for Europe in the context of cooperation of the EU and the CU,” Verheugen believes.
Europe has urged the Vilnius summit to be used to unblock relations with Minsk. The EU imposed sanctions against Belarus for ‘violation of human rights and persecution of opposition’. No intentions to use the summit to improve relations with Minsk have been confirmed.
Georgia
Georgia will be represented by new President Georgy Margvelashvili in Vilnius. He plans to sign the association agreement with the EU. But how will the events evolve then is unclear because observers do not rule out harsh steps of new Georgian authorities against the old ones. If ex-President Mikheil Saakashvili goes to jail, Tbilisi may have problems with the EU, like Ukraine with Yulia Timoshenko. Nonetheless, according to Verheugen, “The EU and Georgia go step-by-step towards signing the association agreement. It will be signed in Vilnius.” Yet, the politician expressed surprise that the term selective justice is used for Georgia the same way as with Ukraine.
Moldova
Moldova has the best chances for association with the EU. “In case of Moldova, signing of the association agreement is very expectable. There are high chances that the visa regime will be simplified by the end of the year,” stated Verheugen. Thus, Kishinev would be the first to gain the right for visa-free visits to Europe.
Ukraine
The signing of the association agreement with Kiev should be the highlight of the Vilnius summit. According to Verheugen, “there are technical prerequisites for signing of the association agreement with the EU. At this moment, questions of Brussels come down to whether the critical remarks found satisfactory solutions. In 2013, Kiev managed to achieve significant progress in the field of legal statehood. Despite the fact that most members of the EU are optimistic about signing of the association agreement with Ukraine in Vilnius, the problem of Yulia Timoshenko and related criticism of Kiev for selective justice has not found a solution yet. Berlin made a mistake when it tied long-term prospects of its eastern policy with the problem of one person, Yulia Timoshenko.”
Verheugen condemned the ‘gas lever’ Russia used against Ukraine in order to keep Kiev away from signing the EU association agreement. “We cannot afford new trade wars in Europe,” assumes Verheugen. Still, the German professor noted the need to develop normal working relations between Brussels and Moscow. In his words, the European Union should interest Russia in constructive cooperation. Without Russia, there is no solution to conflicts in member-states of the Eastern Partnership. Formation of common geoeconomic space from Dublin to Vladivostok is not an illusion, it is a real prospect that needs maximum efforts from both Russia and the EU.
