Russia, as a neighbour and an unbiased mediator, is to help Azerbaijan
and Armenia to find a key to the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Having
visited Armenia at the end of August and Azerbaijan at the beginning
of September, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev has maintained balance
in the South Caucasus. He persuaded the conflicting parties to
continue the dialogue. The reference to the "neighbourhood" could be
regarded as a message for his partners in Europe and US, saying that
Moscow has an extraordinary interest in the region. Medvedev, unlike
French and American colleagues (co-chairmen of the OSCE Minsk Group),
is personally organizing the meetings of Azerbaijani and Armenian
presidents to bring the sides together. Friendly relationships with
the two presidents makes this easier. On the other hand, there is a
desire to control the process of negotiations and to prevent adopting
a decision unacceptable for Moscow. For the last two years the
initiative in negotiations has belonged to Moscow, while the Minsk
Group co-chairmen discussed technical components of questions raised
by Russia. So the results of Medvedev's visit to Azerbaijan can't be
viewed apart from his visit to Armenia. That is not shuttle diplomacy,
but the aims of the visits were similar to a shuttle strategy. In
Baku, Medvedev has calmed down the country's establishment,
highlighting that the Russian military base in Gyumri is no danger to
Azerbaijan, the protocol signed in Yerevan provides only for the
prolonging of the terms of the continuing deployment of Russian
troops. As far as the Karabakh conflict is concerned, Medvedev was
trying to convince the Azerbaijani authorities to be patient, and not
to take harsh steps. Yerevan has to take time to make a decision, in
view of failure in the rapprochement process with Turkey. Gas
agreements are the positive results of Medvedev's visit to Azerbaijan.
Russia's Gazprom and the Azerbaijani State Oil Company have signed an
agreement on a twofold gas purchase enlargement in 2011 and a supplies
increase in 2012. During the visit a document on the state border
between Russia and Azerbaijan was adopted and ways of using the Samur
river water sources were discussed. The Caspian issue was also
discussed. For the last two years no serious decision has been
adopted. Russia here tries to promote the idea of creating a Caspian
Economic Cooperation Organization. Baku supports the idea, but wants
to resolve the status problems first.
Evgeny Krishtalev. Especially for VK
