The president of Georgia might leave politics in 2013. His main aim is to create a team who would continue his reforms started after the Rose Revolution.
It might seem strange to talk about "post-Saakashvili period" now. But a very important role will be played by the results of parliamentary elections which take place in spring 2012.
Besides that questions like "What will come after?" or "Who if not him?" are very typical for Georgia and its political culture.
Georgia does not have any experience in the democratic transfer of power - the first and the only one elected government of the Democratic Republic of Georgia was overthrown by the Bolsheviks in 1921. The same thing happened to Zviad Gamsahurdia and Eduard Shevernadze. Will be this tradition continued?
The situation is more complicated because it is still not clear if Mikhail Saakashvili is organizes a successor or if he plans to keep power by becoming prime minister. This autumn the parliament will probably accept the new constitution and transform Georgia from presidential republic to a parliamentary-presidential one.There is a suspicion that Saakashvili wants to reform the constitution for himself, i.e. will become the prime-minister in 2013 when the new constitution comes into effect. The president will be someone from Saakashvili's close and reliable colleagues - the current prime-minister David Bakradze or the Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili. By the way, the new constitution does not limit the terms of the prime minister at all.
But we also should analyze other variants. The point is that the new constitution will come into effect in December 2013, one and a half year after parliamentary elections in 2012 which will form the government and elect the prime-minister.It is not Saakashvili's style. Moreover a president-prime-minister change is too similar with the Russian pattern and Saakashvili is really concerned about his reputation of a democrat in the West.
That is how we get another variant. Saakashvili might leave politics in 2013 and now his main task is to create a reliable team which will continue his reforms. This also explains why the president wants the new version of the constitution - it will give much more power to parliament. The current mayor of Tbilisi, Gigi Ugulava, might leadthe ruling party at the elections in 2012 and then become prime minister. In this case, all the authority of the president will come to him after 2013. The only way to change the course of policy is to organize another revolution. But the ill-matched Georgian opposition does not have any clear program; therefore it does not have a chance of winning at the 2012 elections. And it is not easy to organize a revolution now - society is tired with changes and wants stability, which means the stability of Saakashvili.
Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively for VK
