By Victoria Panfilova, a columnist of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Bodrum (Turkey) is hosting the 4th Turkic Council summit. Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov has attended the summit personally for the first time. His decision to meet colleagues can only mean that Ashkhabad is finally ready to switch from being an observer to becoming a full member of the interstate alliance.
The Turkic Council consists of Azerbaijan, Turkey, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Turkmenistan is an observer. The position of Uzbekistan as the sixth potential member of the organization is not understandable at all. Tashkent has not denied allying with the others, but it has not expressed any desire to join them either. The summit in Bodrum will be held without representatives of Uzbekistan.
Official releases say that the program of Presidents Ilham Aliyev, Abdullah Gul, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Almazbek Atambayev and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov is very extensive. Moreover, the 4th summit may become decisive because of all the documents that will be signed by the presidents. Turkic states will adopt a strategy of joint efforts in the economic and educational sectors. One of the breakthrough initiatives is to form a common TV channel. The presidents should also discuss mechanisms to form foreign centers to expand the influence of the alliance throughout the world. They will consider formation of a free trade zone and exports of energy resources to Europe through Turkey.
The idea of forming the Alliance of Turkic States could not go unnoticed by world players, unsurprisingly. A union of kindred countries is being born. The Baku and Ankara duo with Astana joining it are the locomotive of the alliance. There have been no doubts about the economic and the humanitarian potential of Kazakhstan or the commitment of its leader Nursultan Nazarbayev to high-scale integration projects. However, relations between Baku and Ankara have been at a high level for a long time, so Astana needed a good incentive to approach that level. And the move has been made.
Nursultan Nazarbayev has ruled out membership of Armenia with unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh at the recent summit where the Eurasian Economic Council has been formed. Thus, Astana has firmly formulated its position for its ally Azerbaijan, maybe even to the disappointment of Moscow.
Ashkhabad may play an important role in the Alliance of Turkic States if Berdimuhamedov decides to take part in it regularly. Certain concerns about gas exports may serve as a prerequisite for activation of Turkmenistan. The contracts Russia and China have recently signed may give a start to more Russian gas exports to China to fully cover all demands. In this case, Beijing could reconsider contracts with Ashkhabad and demand different prices or switch to Russian gas completely. Turkmenistan certainly wants to be ready for such a scenario to minimize financial risks. Although transporting Turkmen energy resources to Azerbaijan seems like an exceptionally complicated task, because building a pipeline is impossible without resolving the dispute over status of the Caspian Sea, the partners need to come to an agreement over the pipeline for the future. This has never been a priority goal for Turkmenistan. Now it seems to be time to fix its position at a partnership level and then think about overcoming Iranian and Russian restrictions for its construction.
Kyrgyzstan, the fifth participant in the Bodrum talks, lacks the resources available in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. It has a disadvantageous geographic position, unlike Turkey, and has been unstable for a long time. The country is doubtlessly hoping for any benefit. Support from any stronger state would be a great achievement.
Ilgar Velizadeh, the head of the South Caucasus Club of Political Analysts, regards the Turkic Council as a comfortable format for cooperation of countries with common language and culture. “This project differs from many others because its participants have clear goals and objectives, the members of the alliance themselves are indeed equal. It is also essential that the international organization does not infringe on the sovereignty of its members in any way. All countries are free to partake in any alliances and blocs they want,” Velizadeh told Vestnik Kavkaza.
According to the political analyst, the problem with the alliance of Turkic states in cooperating more extensively and efficiently is obviously the differences in laws. He assumes that harmonization of laws may become another topic at the Bodrum meeting. Velizadeh believes that such top-level contacts improve relations and give better opportunities to interact with the world as a single front, defending the common and private interests of each of them.
Has Turkmenistan decided to become the fifth member of the alliance?By Victoria Panfilova, a columnist of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, exclusively for Vestnik KavkazaBodrum (Turkey) is hosting the 4th Turkic Council summit. Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov has attended the summit personally for the first time. His decision to meet colleagues can only mean that Ashkhabad is finally ready to switch from being an observer to becoming a full member of the interstate alliance.The Turkic Council consists of Azerbaijan, Turkey, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan. Turkmenistan is an observer. The position of Uzbekistan as the sixth potential member of the organization is not understandable at all. Tashkent has not denied allying with the others, but it has not expressed any desire to join them either. The summit in Bodrum will be held without representatives of Uzbekistan.Official releases say that the program of Presidents Ilham Aliyev, Abdullah Gul, Nursultan Nazarbayev, Almazbek Atambayev and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov is very extensive. Moreover, the 4th summit may become decisive because of all the documents that will be signed by the presidents. Turkic states will adopt a strategy of joint efforts in the economic and educational sectors. One of the breakthrough initiatives is to form a common TV channel. The presidents should also discuss mechanisms to form foreign centers to expand the influence of the alliance throughout the world. They will consider formation of a free trade zone and exports of energy resources to Europe through Turkey.The idea of forming the Alliance of Turkic States could not go unnoticed by world players, unsurprisingly. A union of kindred countries is being born. The Baku and Ankara duo with Astana joining it are the locomotive of the alliance. There have been no doubts about the economic and the humanitarian potential of Kazakhstan or the commitment of its leader Nursultan Nazarbayev to high-scale integration projects. However, relations between Baku and Ankara have been at a high level for a long time, so Astana needed a good incentive to approach that level. And the move has been made.Nursultan Nazarbayev has ruled out membership of Armenia with unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh at the recent summit where the Eurasian Economic Council has been formed. Thus, Astana has firmly formulated its position for its ally Azerbaijan, maybe even to the disappointment of Moscow.Ashkhabad may play an important role in the Alliance of Turkic States if Berdimuhamedov decides to take part in it regularly. Certain concerns about gas exports may serve as a prerequisite for activation of Turkmenistan. The contracts Russia and China have recently signed may give a start to more Russian gas exports to China to fully cover all demands. In this case, Beijing could reconsider contracts with Ashkhabad and demand different prices or switch to Russian gas completely. Turkmenistan certainly wants to be ready for such a scenario to minimize financial risks. Although transporting Turkmen energy resources to Azerbaijan seems like an exceptionally complicated task, because building a pipeline is impossible without resolving the dispute over status of the Caspian Sea, the partners need to come to an agreement over the pipeline for the future. This has never been a priority goal for Turkmenistan. Now it seems to be time to fix its position at a partnership level and then think about overcoming Iranian and Russian restrictions for its construction.Kyrgyzstan, the fifth participant in the Bodrum talks, lacks the resources available in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. It has a disadvantageous geographic position, unlike Turkey, and has been unstable for a long time. The country is doubtlessly hoping for any benefit. Support from any stronger state would be a great achievement.Ilgar Velizadeh, the head of the South Caucasus Club of Political Analysts, regards the Turkic Council as a comfortable format for cooperation of countries with common language and culture. “This project differs from many others because its participants have clear goals and objectives, the members of the alliance themselves are indeed equal. It is also essential that the international organization does not infringe on the sovereignty of its members in any way. All countries are free to partake in any alliances and blocs they want,” Velizadeh told Vestnik Kavkaza.According to the political analyst, the problem with the alliance of Turkic states in cooperating more extensively and efficiently is obviously the differences in laws. He assumes that harmonization of laws may become another topic at the Bodrum meeting. Velizadeh believes that such top-level contacts improve relations and give better opportunities to interact with the world as a single front, defending the common and private interests of each of the
