Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi, exclusively for VK
Last Sunday Georgia held local elections. They were very different from all the other municipal elections that have taken place during the years of independence. First of all, because this time the citizens had the right to directly elect the heads of the local administrations and the mayors of 12 big cities. Until then, only the mayor of Tbilisi Gigi Uguglava had been elected directly in 2010. It is important to note, however, that in his case the barrier was only 30% - if a candidate received more than the other contestants and more than 30% of the votes, he was considered elected.
At the elections that took place last Sunday not only in Tbilisi but in other big cities and regions the barrier was 50%. This led to a result which is very unpleasant for the ruling coalition. According to the preliminary data of the CEC, the Tbilisi mayoral candidate from Georgian Dream, former minister of infrastructure David Narmania, has 47%, while his main opponent, one of the leaders of Mikheil Saakashvili's United National Movement Nika Melia, has 27%.
The gap seems huge but, considering the local mentality, political traditions and electoral culture of the last 25 years, if the candidate of the ruling party does not win in the first round, the electorate perceives it as a defeat and the second round has a chance for surprises if not for sensations. This is why the allies of the ex-president already called the second round their "enormous victory" and a "devastating defeat" for the ruling coalition: "The people said NO to a government that has failed to fulfil any of its electoral promises," the leader of the parliamentary opposition David Bakradze trumpeted. The elections for Tbilisi mayor have a special place because of their political importance: Tbilisi is "two thirds" of the country due to its population and economic potential, not to mention the Georgian elites that concentrate in the capital. That is why in 1991-2010 the government did not dare to hold direct mayoral elections in Tbilisi, fearing the election of a "second president" who would be comparable to the first one in influence. Even if in two weeks Georgian Dream mobilizes all its electorate and manages to beat the United National Movement, a second round in the capital is an omen for the ruling coalition. Especially because the turnout was very low - 26% in the capital and 34% in the country in general.
The speakers of the coalition try to explain the low turnout by the "normal apathy of voters to the municipal elections". "Local elections have low turnout everywhere in the world," the leader of the parliamentary majority David Saganelidze said. But he is being insincere - those elections did not cede to the presidential or parliamentary ones in the degree of emotions. Everyone understood that they were not only electing their local authorities but defining the future powers of the main political opponents: the Georgian Dream of Bidzina Ivanishvili and the National Movement of Mikheil Saakashvili. The low turnout can be explained by the refusal of the electorate of Georgian Dream to come to the voting stations, while the electorate of the National Movement was highly mobilized. A similar picture can be seen in the other regions: in the other big cities and regions the situation is close to a second round. The National Movement takes second place in all the municipal, regional and rural government bodies. This means that although some opposition forces do not like the party of Saakashvili, the United National Movement has a chance to build some situational alliances with smaller opposition groups and scupper certain initiatives of Georgian Dream. Those tendencies will only weaken the ruling coalition in the center. Third place in the capital (12%) and other regions (average 10%) was taken b y the party "Democratic Movement - United Georgia" of the ex-speaker of the parliament Nino Burdzhanadze, which positions itself as a third power. It accuses the current government of "playing with the criminal clique of Saakashvili" and of an inability to fulfil its promises to restore justice and punish Saakashvili. Many voters who went to the voting stations with similar feelings voted not for Burdzhanadze but for the more radical Patriotic Alliance. Its candidate, the famous journalist Irma Inashvili, who took part in the elections for the first time, got 6%! During their electoral campaign, the allies of Inashvili openly called to "hang the Saakashvili murderers and rapers like dogs".
This reveals the radicalization of a part of society which is against the party of the ex-president up to their readiness to take up arms if Saakashvili returns to Georgian politics. The ex-president does not hide such plans. He congratulated his party on a "brilliant success" and promised to do everything for their victory at the next parliamentary elections. Saakashvili himself did not take part in the elections because he spends almost all his time in Kiev. But his originally Dutch wife, Sandra Roelofs, specifically flew from the Netherlands with her younger son to go to a polling station.
