By Victoria Panfilova, a Nezavisimaya Gazeta columnist, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
The meeting of President Vladimir Putin (Russia) with his counterparts Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan) and Serzh Sargsyan (Armenia) demonstrated that Russia and other mediators of the OSCE Minsk Group had no recipe to settle the Karabakh conflict. The meeting in Sochi serviced to reduce tensions in the region. Although Aliyev and Sargsyan stated after the talks that Russia had greater potential to resolve the conflict than any other country.
“Currently, when the mediators have no ideas, in a situation of highest distrust of Azerbaijan and Armenia towards each other, there is no way out of the stalemate in the near future,” Armenian political analyst Armen Khanbabyan told Vestnik Kavkaza.
According to the Madrid Principles, the borders and communications should be unblocked, Armenian forces should leave six districts around Nagorno-Karabakh and stay in the Lachin District, which will later be under international control. The plan requires a referendum to decide the status of Nagorno-Karabakh in the future. Baku disagrees with the latter. Azerbaijan wants Armenia to have only a corridor, not the whole Lachin District. Armenia refuses to leave the six districts, because this would weaken its positions in Nagorno-Karabakh. The sides see no need for the deployment of peacekeepers. Considering the deep controversies, it is possible to assume that the situation is frozen and conflicts on the contact line will happen at a different intensity.
Baku believes that the status quo is unacceptable for Azerbaijan and some other countries, including Russia. The region is of vital interest to Russia, so there is hope that the dialogue will be given a push after the Sochi meeting.
Before the meeting of the presidents in Sochi, some experts supposed that the sides had reached an agreement on five districts around Nagorno-Karabakh and disputes remained only over two districts. No one has officially confirmed this version. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at the negotiations that consensus was reached on many issues. Russia made it clear by organizing the meeting in Sochi that all levers of influence on the situation were in its hands.
Azerbaijan is the most natural economic partner of Armenia, in terms of its geographic position and communications. Evidently, if there were no Karabakh problem, Armenia would have been involved in regional, transportation and communication projects to its own benefit. It is very likely that energy infrastructure would have been built through Armenia, not just Georgia. This means the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline that should be connected to Europe.
Meanwhile, the socio-economic condition of Armenia leaves much to be desired, considering migration that keeps growing in the context of demographic data. The birth rate exceeded the mortality rate by 30% in the first three months of 2014. At the same time, the population dropped by 8,000 people. This means that the employable population is leaving the country in search of a living. 15% of the GDP is formed by cash transfers from migrants.
Nair Zograbyan, the secretary of the Prosperous Armenia faction in the parliament, stated that “it is the most serious challenge for the country, and making conclusions from the situation, continuing the same socio-economic policy, means anticipating a catastrophe.” “I just cannot note a single socio-economic sector with achievements. It can all cause irretrievable losses, so real measures need to be taken,” she recently told journalists.
Armenian ex-Prime Minister Grant Bagratyan clarified the causes of the critical situation in the republic on his Facebook page. In his opinion, the effect of the reforms implemented in the 1990s disappeared in 2007, governments have achieved no significant success. He said that the new Cabinet needed to work for at least half a year to make any conclusions about its efficiency. “Nonetheless, I expected more from the government in the first half of 2014,” noted the ex-prime minister.
The National Statistical Service (NSS) of Armenia published macroeconomic indicators characterizing the socio-economic situation in the country in the first half of 2014. The GDP in the first quarter of the year totaled 3.1%, exceeding the previous year’s indicator by 0.3%, basically no economic growth. Exports increased by 0.8%, imports by 1.1%. Grant Bagratyan noted that the NSS had been asked many times to present the figures in relation to prices, because the dollar price of exports and imports was changing. “If the NSS does not do it, it becomes obvious that the real situation is even more disheartening than it seems. A little progress can be seen only in the service sector,” noted the ex-prime minister.
Yerevan hopes that the situation will improve after joining the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. Joining post-Soviet integration projects should minimize the repercussions of the blockade made by its neighbours. But there are questions. One of them is about the functionality of the Abkhaz railway running through Georgia. It may connect Armenia with Russia. But the railway has not been used for over 20 years. Besides, it was mostly used for passenger transportation in Soviet times, so the rails are probably unsuitable for heavy freighting. Sukhumi considers a functioning road a factor of risk in the light of hypothetical military threats from Georgia. That is why the prospects of Armenia’s development of economic and commercial ties with the Customs Union will be more or less clear only after it joins the integration mechanism. Yet no one mentioned the negative impact that joining the Customs Union may have on Armenia. Yerevan fears rising prices for some goods and services, because they are higher in the Union than Armenia. Trade with non-members of the Customs Union and the EU will probably fall. To minimize the repercussions, Yerevan wants waivers, customs fees. Related discussions are already on the way and, Armenian negotiators claim, are going successfully.
Still no recipe to settle Karabakh conflictBy Victoria Panfilova, a Nezavisimaya Gazeta columnist, exclusively for Vestnik KavkazaThe meeting of President Vladimir Putin (Russia) with his counterparts Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan) and Serzh Sargsyan (Armenia) demonstrated that Russia and other mediators of the OSCE Minsk Group had no recipe to settle the Karabakh conflict. The meeting in Sochi serviced to reduce tensions in the region. Although Aliyev and Sargsyan stated after the talks that Russia had greater potential to resolve the conflict than any other country.“Currently, when the mediators have no ideas, in a situation of highest distrust of Azerbaijan and Armenia towards each other, there is no way out of the stalemate in the near future,” Armenian political analyst Armen Khanbabyan told Vestnik Kavkaza.According to the Madrid Principles, the borders and communications should be unblocked, Armenian forces should leave six districts around Nagorno-Karabakh and stay in the Lachin District, which will later be under international control. The plan requires a referendum to decide the status of Nagorno-Karabakh in the future. Baku disagrees with the latter. Azerbaijan wants Armenia to have only a corridor, not the whole Lachin District. Armenia refuses to leave the six districts, because this would weaken its positions in Nagorno-Karabakh. The sides see no need for the deployment of peacekeepers. Considering the deep controversies, it is possible to assume that the situation is frozen and conflicts on the contact line will happen at a different intensity.Baku believes that the status quo is unacceptable for Azerbaijan and some other countries, including Russia. The region is of vital interest to Russia, so there is hope that the dialogue will be given a push after the Sochi meeting.Before the meeting of the presidents in Sochi, some experts supposed that the sides had reached an agreement on five districts around Nagorno-Karabakh and disputes remained only over two districts. No one has officially confirmed this version. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said at the negotiations that consensus was reached on many issues. Russia made it clear by organizing the meeting in Sochi that all levers of influence on the situation were in its hands.Azerbaijan is the most natural economic partner of Armenia, in terms of its geographic position and communications. Evidently, if there were no Karabakh problem, Armenia would have been involved in regional, transportation and communication projects to its own benefit. It is very likely that energy infrastructure would have been built through Armenia, not just Georgia. This means the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline and the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline that should be connected to Europe.Meanwhile, the socio-economic condition of Armenia leaves much to be desired, considering migration that keeps growing in the context of demographic data. The birth rate exceeded the mortality rate by 30% in the first three months of 2014. At the same time, the population dropped by 8,000 people. This means that the employable population is leaving the country in search of a living. 15% of the GDP is formed by cash transfers from migrants.Nair Zograbyan, the secretary of the Prosperous Armenia faction in the parliament, stated that “it is the most serious challenge for the country, and making conclusions from the situation, continuing the same socio-economic policy, means anticipating a catastrophe.” “I just cannot note a single socio-economic sector with achievements. It can all cause irretrievable losses, so real measures need to be taken,” she recently told journalists.Armenian ex-Prime Minister Grant Bagratyan clarified the causes of the critical situation in the republic on his Facebook page. In his opinion, the effect of the reforms implemented in the 1990s disappeared in 2007, governments have achieved no significant success. He said that the new Cabinet needed to work for at least half a year to make any conclusions about its efficiency. “Nonetheless, I expected more from the government in the first half of 2014,” noted the ex-prime minister.The National Statistical Service (NSS) of Armenia published macroeconomic indicators characterizing the socio-economic situation in the country in the first half of 2014. The GDP in the first quarter of the year totaled 3.1%, exceeding the previous year’s indicator by 0.3%, basically no economic growth. Exports increased by 0.8%, imports by 1.1%. Grant Bagratyan noted that the NSS had been asked many times to present the figures in relation to prices, because the dollar price of exports and imports was changing. “If the NSS does not do it, it becomes obvious that the real situation is even more disheartening than it seems. A little progress can be seen only in the service sector,” noted the ex-prime minister.Yerevan hopes that the situation will improve after joining the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union. Joining post-Soviet integration projects should minimize the repercussions of the blockade made by its neighbours. But there are questions. One of them is about the functionality of the Abkhaz railway running through Georgia. It may connect Armenia with Russia. But the railway has not been used for over 20 years. Besides, it was mostly used for passenger transportation in Soviet times, so the rails are probably unsuitable for heavy freighting. Sukhumi considers a functioning road a factor of risk in the light of hypothetical military threats from Georgia. That is why the prospects of Armenia’s development of economic and commercial ties with the Customs Union will be more or less clear only after it joins the integration mechanism. Yet no one mentioned the negative impact that joining the Customs Union may have on Armenia. Yerevan fears rising prices for some goods and services, because they are higher in the Union than Armenia. Trade with non-members of the Customs Union and the EU will probably fall. To minimize the repercussions, Yerevan wants waivers, customs fees. Related discussions are already on the way and, Armenian negotiators claim, are going successful
