By Mikhail Belyayev exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
The trilateral meeting of Presidents Vladimir Putin (Russia), Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan) and Serzh Sargsyan (Armenia) in Sochi has not turned out to be a breakthrough. In the light of geopolitical shifts in post-Soviet space, the progressive Russian-Azerbaijani rapprochement and unprecedented tensions along the contact line of Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line of forces, it was a very promising meeting. Today, after no diplomatic sensation has happened, many call the talks in Sochi a complete failure.
In reality, judging their efficiency, it should be admitted that a lack of results is basically a failure. But looking at the round of talks through the prism of dozens of previous fruitless summits, the latest round is not the worst of them. At least no one had to rush to the toilet, as happened at Rambouillet at the meeting between Ilham Aliyev and Robert Kocharyan in 2006. Distancing from the OSCE MG format gives some hope for some progress in the future, since Moscow has close ties with Baku and Yerevan and Vladimir Putin joined the peacekeeping process as a man with real influence on the conflict. It was the first meeting between Aliyev and Sargsyan in the last nine months. Maybe the sides should maintain regular contacts. On the other hand, Baku made it clear that it will not negotiate on negotiations, the settlement of the conflict is going rather slowly.
It is the year 2014, exactly 20 years have passed since the signing of the Bishkek Ceasefire Protocol. Baku and Yerevan are still far from peace, as can be seen from the Armenian president’s rhetoric after the visit to Sochi. Upon returning to Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan gave an interview with local press, threatening to turn Azerbaijani cities into another “Agdam.” Azerbaijan’s occupied Agdam used to be famous for its cognac in the USSR. The city is a ghost town now. Armenian forces razed it to the ground during the Karabakh war. Sargsyan should have threatened Azerbaijan with another “Khojaly” in that case. The Armenian president was boasting about butchering the Azerbaijani civil population when he had been a field commander, as documented in his interview with Thomas de Vaal.
Sargsyan’s harsh rhetoric that he did not risk voicing before the negotiations with President Vladimir Putin gives an indirect hint that Russia gave Armenia certain guarantees that the Karabakh war would not be renewed. Consequently, Yerevan will continue putting maximum efforts into preserving the status quo. Keeping Azerbaijani territories occupied slows down economic development due to the blockade of Armenia, the migration rates from which have become alarming. The Karabakh topic remains the only argument of the ruling elite that obtained power in the context of the first Karabakh war. In this aspect, the line of conduct of theArmenian political authorities after the Sochi meeting is more than predictable.
What has Russia achieved by organizing the meeting? Vladimir Putin had bilateral negotiations with Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan and discussed many bilateral issues, including the changing geopolitical situation in post-Soviet space and the conflict between Russia and the West. The meeting in Sochi served to reduce the escalation of violence on the frontline zone that has been seen since early August. Moscow does not want a bloody conflict on its borders. Russia has taken France’s initiative in settling the conflict in the context of deteriorating relations with the West. Russia made it clear that it will not give up its status of leader in the South Caucasus.
Azerbaijan will most likely beef up its forces. According to Turkey’s Hurriyet, Baku bought Israeli ballistic missiles (130km) and long-range missiles (2000km). The Vedomosti paper reports that Russia started shipping 94 T-90 tanks, about 100 BMP-3 armored vehicles, 18 self-propelled Msta-S artillery systems and 18 Vena guns, 18 Smerch volley-fire systems and 6 heavy Solntsepek flame-throwers.
It is no secret that Baku has outrun Yerevan in the arms race due to its financial potential. Armenia is fully dependent on Russia’s security guarantees. When and under what circumstances Azerbaijan would use its army to de-occupy its territories is hard to predict. No doubt Baku will never miss a chance for a lightning military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts. Billions of dollars have not been invested in offensive weapons to keep them corroding. If there is a gun hanging on the wall, it will fire sooner or later.
Armenia focuses on conserving the conflict, hoping that new generations of Azerbaijanis will forget about Karabakh. Only time will show whether such a plan succeeds. In any case, recent bloody clashes on the frontline have stirred up and mobilized the population of Azerbaijan so much that the Azerbaijani government will have to do a lot to calm it down after the Sochi meeting. Every year, public pressure on the Azerbaijani government only grows over the unresolved conflict, and the Karabakh problem is the dominating factor of its internal policy.
Only Moscow can defuse the “Karabakh bomb,” a mechanism triggered during the USSR agony. The main intrigue is whether Putin’s peacekeeping initiative was a one-time move or whether there will be new steps taken towards a peaceful settlement. There is hope that the Kremlin will pay special attention to resolving the old problem of its allies. In the next few months we will see an effective continuation of Russia’s peacekeeping in the South Caucasus.
It will not give status of leader in South CaucasusBy Mikhail Belyayev exclusively for Vestnik KavkazaThe trilateral meeting of Presidents Vladimir Putin (Russia), Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan) and Serzh Sargsyan (Armenia) in Sochi has not turned out to be a breakthrough. In the light of geopolitical shifts in post-Soviet space, the progressive Russian-Azerbaijani rapprochement and unprecedented tensions along the contact line of Armenian-Azerbaijani contact line of forces, it was a very promising meeting. Today, after no diplomatic sensation has happened, many call the talks in Sochi a complete failure.In reality, judging their efficiency, it should be admitted that a lack of results is basically a failure. But looking at the round of talks through the prism of dozens of previous fruitless summits, the latest round is not the worst of them. At least no one had to rush to the toilet, as happened at Rambouillet at the meeting between Ilham Aliyev and Robert Kocharyan in 2006. Distancing from the OSCE MG format gives some hope for some progress in the future, since Moscow has close ties with Baku and Yerevan and Vladimir Putin joined the peacekeeping process as a man with real influence on the conflict. It was the first meeting between Aliyev and Sargsyan in the last nine months. Maybe the sides should maintain regular contacts. On the other hand, Baku made it clear that it will not negotiate on negotiations, the settlement of the conflict is going rather slowly.It is the year 2014, exactly 20 years have passed since the signing of the Bishkek Ceasefire Protocol. Baku and Yerevan are still far from peace, as can be seen from the Armenian president’s rhetoric after the visit to Sochi. Upon returning to Armenia, Serzh Sargsyan gave an interview with local press, threatening to turn Azerbaijani cities into another “Agdam.” Azerbaijan’s occupied Agdam used to be famous for its cognac in the USSR. The city is a ghost town now. Armenian forces razed it to the ground during the Karabakh war. Sargsyan should have threatened Azerbaijan with another “Khojaly” in that case. The Armenian president was boasting about butchering the Azerbaijani civil population when he had been a field commander, as documented in his interview with Thomas de Vaal.Sargsyan’s harsh rhetoric that he did not risk voicing before the negotiations with President Vladimir Putin gives an indirect hint that Russia gave Armenia certain guarantees that the Karabakh war would not be renewed. Consequently, Yerevan will continue putting maximum efforts into preserving the status quo. Keeping Azerbaijani territories occupied slows down economic development due to the blockade of Armenia, the migration rates from which have become alarming. The Karabakh topic remains the only argument of the ruling elite that obtained power in the context of the first Karabakh war. In this aspect, the line of conduct of theArmenian political authorities after the Sochi meeting is more than predictable.What has Russia achieved by organizing the meeting? Vladimir Putin had bilateral negotiations with Ilham Aliyev and Serzh Sargsyan and discussed many bilateral issues, including the changing geopolitical situation in post-Soviet space and the conflict between Russia and the West. The meeting in Sochi served to reduce the escalation of violence on the frontline zone that has been seen since early August. Moscow does not want a bloody conflict on its borders. Russia has taken France’s initiative in settling the conflict in the context of deteriorating relations with the West. Russia made it clear that it will not give up its status of leader in the South Caucasus.Azerbaijan will most likely beef up its forces. According to Turkey’s Hurriyet, Baku bought Israeli ballistic missiles (130km) and long-range missiles (2000km). The Vedomosti paper reports that Russia started shipping 94 T-90 tanks, about 100 BMP-3 armored vehicles, 18 self-propelled Msta-S artillery systems and 18 Vena guns, 18 Smerch volley-fire systems and 6 heavy Solntsepek flame-throwers.It is no secret that Baku has outrun Yerevan in the arms race due to its financial potential. Armenia is fully dependent on Russia’s security guarantees. When and under what circumstances Azerbaijan would use its army to de-occupy its territories is hard to predict. No doubt Baku will never miss a chance for a lightning military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding districts. Billions of dollars have not been invested in offensive weapons to keep them corroding. If there is a gun hanging on the wall, it will fire sooner or later.Armenia focuses on conserving the conflict, hoping that new generations of Azerbaijanis will forget about Karabakh. Only time will show whether such a plan succeeds. In any case, recent bloody clashes on the frontline have stirred up and mobilized the population of Azerbaijan so much that the Azerbaijani government will have to do a lot to calm it down after the Sochi meeting. Every year, public pressure on the Azerbaijani government only grows over the unresolved conflict, and the Karabakh problem is the dominating factor of its internal policy.Only Moscow can defuse the “Karabakh bomb,” a mechanism triggered during the USSR agony. The main intrigue is whether Putin’s peacekeeping initiative was a one-time move or whether there will be new steps taken towards a peaceful settlement. There is hope that the Kremlin will pay special attention to resolving the old problem of its allies. In the next few months we will see an effective continuation of Russia’s peacekeeping in the South Cauca
