By Orkhan Sattarov, the head of the European Bureau of Vestnik Kavkaza
The war of the U.S. and its allies with the Islamic State terrorist organization has gone beyond the territory of Iraq. When U.S. President Barack Obama declared a decisive fight with IS, many analysts warned that Iraq could be just part of the battlefield. Their predictions seem to be coming true.
The White House has continued the old practice of military operations in Yugoslavia and Iraq without the UN Security Council's mandate. Washington gained the support of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Bahrain and the UAE. Even Qatar, suspected of helping IS, has taken part in the operation. Despite bombing terrorists in Iraq, France refused to participate in the operation in Syria. British Prime Minister David Cameron is expected to ask the House of Commons to grant permission for intervention against the Islamic State. The House will probably give approval due to the recent news about the brutal execution of British citizen David Haines. It is unclear whether Britain will fight only in Iraq, it will probably fully support the U.S. in Syria as well.
The Americans did not attack Syria after the refusal of the British parliament to interfere after the alleged chemical attacks by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Instead, they agreed to implement Russia's idea to destroy Syria's chemical weapons.
Unlike Baghdad crying for help, Damascus has not asked the air forces of the U.S. and its allies to enter its aerospace. Reports by Syrian governmental media about Americans requesting permission to bomb the Islamic State are attempts by the Syrian regime to save face. The U.S. State Department assured that no one coordinated actions with Damascus and that Assad's regime was unaware of plans to make air raids on Syrian territory.
The Syrian government is in a complicated situation, because it warned that unpermitted air raids on its territory would be classified as military aggression. Bashar al-Assad is reluctant to declare war on the superpower, hoping to take advantage of the situation: the American coalition is carrying out air strikes on the Islamic State and the An-Nusra Front. Both organizations are the strongest enemies of the Syrian government. The Syrian opposition that may become the new post-Assad government is another force in the struggle. The German Foreign Ministry warned against logic such as "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" at a briefing on September 22. It was Bashar al-Assad's harsh policy that let IS become so strong in Syria. French President Francois Hollande said that it was wrong to choose between two kinds of "barbarity." Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (Germany) wrote that the Americans will get on with the Assad's government after the Islamic State.
Iran, unlike Syria, condemned the U.S. attacks on Syrian territory immediately, calling them illegal. Tehran reminded that such actions should not gain Syria's support. Maybe Tehran figured that expecting good from Washington was not a good idea. Iranians were not invited to the international conference on Iraq to discuss the Islamic State in Paris. Iraqi Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari expressed disappointment at the neglect of the role of Iran. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry ruled out the involvement of Iran. David Cameron will meet Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and encourage him to participate in resolving the regional crisis. Spiegel sees very little chances for success of the negotiations.
It is apparent that air raids alone cannot make a breakthrough in the war against Islamic State. The terrorists are well-financed: they extract 25,000-40,000 barrels of oil a day. The price for oil from Kurdish regions is $50-55 per barrel, militants controlling 11 oil fields in the north of Iraq and Syria's Raqqa Province sell it for $40 or even cheaper. According to the calculations of U.S. intelligence, Islamic State makes $3 million a day from oil-smuggling, human trafficking and robberies. The terrorists have generous financing from abroad. After robbing the central bank in Mosul in June, IS got about $500 million, becoming the richest terrorist organization in the world. With such enormous finances, IS can afford to recruit new combatants regularly. The U.S. needs a reliable ally to fight IS. The Americans are actively agitating their NATO ally Turkey to join the operation against Islamic State. Turkey, a neighbour of northern Iraq and Syria, is reluctant to join the risky war. The dozens of Turkish diplomats taken hostage by IS used to be an excuse for Turkey's passivity. After their release, U.S. pressure on Turkey increased dramatically.
John Kerry said that he was expecting Ankara to activate efforts in the fight against the terrorists after settlement of the crisis with hostages. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu stated in an interview with local mass media that Turkey will make its own decision on the extremists. Western mass media contribute to rising pressure on Turkey, blaming it for secretly supporting IS, smuggling oil. Deutsche Welle declared, quoting German intelligence, that Erdogan was developing nuclear weapons.
But despite the austere pressure from its NATO allies, expecting Turkey to fully join the war against Islamic State in the context of the unresolved Kurdish issue is naive. The PKK has become the avant-garde of the standoff against IS. The PKK is recognized as a terrorist organization in Turkey, the EU and the U.S. The organization's leader, Abdullah Ocalan, remains in a Turkish prison. Fighting together with PKK militants is a priori impossible for the Turkish army. Turkey was doing fine with the moderate Kurdish government of Barzani, but the transformation of the PKK into the core of the Kurdish movement in the north of Iraq provides little hope for peace in Kurd-populated regions.
The final outcomes of the new U.S. project in the Middle East are hard to predict. One thing is obvious: another spiral of violence and ethnic cleansing is turning, another stage of revamping the map of the violent region is starting.
