Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
The process of constitutional changes directed at transformation of Armenia from a presidential-parliamentary republic into a parliamentary republic began more than a year ago. The authorities explain their initiative is due to a necessity for change. Representatives of the ruling Republican Party of Armenia state that the goal of the reform is providing Armenia with a more democratic, parliamentary regime, as the current system doesn’t guarantee overcoming of political autocracy and excessive personalization of state power.
The opposition standing for radical changes in the country doesn’t agree to making changes to the Constitution. It considers the changes to be a new instrument of reproducing the power of Serge Sargsyan, whose second term comes to an end in 2018.
A special presidential commission for constitutional reforms proposed a project of constitutional change, but the head of state decided to postpone the process. The press secretary of the President, Arman Sagatelyan, stated that the final position of the head of state on constitutional reforms would be clear in February-March 2015, as additional political consultations and broader political consolidation were needed.
Some experts are sure that the ruling regime is concerned about the protest movement and the opposition consolidating over the idea of overthrowing the regime. The authorities realize that in the context of the growing confrontation with Armenian society, and the opposition launching constitutional reforms, an explosion could be caused in the tense internal political situation. According to the political observer of Zham.am, Karen Akopdzhanyan, internal indignation has reached a dangerous level in the country; at any moment the situation could get out of control. The protest movement that started a month ago in Armenia predetermined changes in the authorities’ position and became a serious obstacle to the ruling regime on the road to conducting constitutional reforms.
Some experts believe that Sargsyan is taking time out to consolidate his team and search for new supporters of constitutional change. At the moment RPA representatives and Dashnaktsutyun stand for turning Armenia into a parliamentary republic, as due to contradictions with the opposition forces, Dashnaktsutyun separated from the parliamentary opposition.
There is an opinion that the President is trying to gain time, hoping that the prepared campaign devoted to the 100th anniversary of the genocide of Armenians in the Ottoman Empire in April 2015 will distract public attention from the internal political struggle and acute problems will pale into insignificance. In the last 15 years the Armenian authorities have many times used the factor of New Year's Eve, cold winters, and so on to weaken protest movements.
The opposition realizes the danger of delaying the process of changing those in power. According to the political scientist Yervand Bozoyan, a possible pause in the process of confrontation between society and the authorities could turn into a failure of the pan-national movement: “The opposition trinity (Prosperous Armenia, the Armenian National Congress, and Legacy) shouldn’t ease their positions, as the authorities always successfully expend time and destroy various movements. The power wants to take time out for several months to pacify and weaken the vigilance of the opposition. The opposition should consolidate social indignation.”
Probably that’s why the leader of Prosperous Armenia, Gagik Tsarukyan, stated at the last major demonstration of the opposition troika that the opposition had no time and in the near future it would open offices of the pan-national movement all over the country to attract citizens and provide opportunities for mobilization at any moment.
