By Georgy Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
After a schism and the loss of its parliamentary majority (76 votes) by the Georgian Dream coalition, experts have started talking about a political crisis. There is no crisis in Georgia because, according to the classic definition, it happens in a parliamentary republic only if a government does not get enough votes for a vote of confidence, or after a failed attempt to pass the budget for the next year, in which case the president, according to the Constitution, may dissolve the parliament or dismiss the Cabinet.
There are no doubts that President Giorgi Margvelashvili would choose the latter, because he is not on very good terms with Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili, while some decisions of the Cabinet (such as forbidding the president to sign the European association agreement in Brussels or ruining his visit to the U.S.) seemed like overt offences.
Thus, the latest events form a completely new configuration in the political landscape of the country. Jondi Bagaturia, the head of the Georgian Troupe Party, told Vestnik Kavkaza that the main risk fr the government was that the ruling coalition could lose its majority in the parliament. "Everything going on at the moment was predictable because the discords and the competition within the coalition got out of control and beyond the lines of sane competition long ago. There was a very big conflict of interests. Economic [interests], not only political," Bagaturia argues. In his opinion, "the political crisis and the political gridlock are obvious." The Free Democrats and the Republicans control 22 seats in the parliament. After losing them, the current government will become a minority.
Georgia may get into a unique situation where a parliamentary republic with limited authority of the president and the lack of a firm majority in the legislative branch depends on parliamentary coalitions and the ability of the government to collect votes via consultations and attraction of small parliamentary groups with their own interests.
The factor of Bidzina Ivanishvili gains special significance, taking into account his huge capital. Unsurprisingly, after the "shake" associated with the dismissal of several ministers, Ivanishvili appeared in Georgian media, having an interview with the First Channel of Georgian television, where he expressed unwillingness to return to politics.
Nonetheless, many politicians and experts associated his name with hope for stabilization that would end the risks of full-scale chaos arising in the last 25 years. Film director Giorgi Khaindrava, an ex-supporter of Ivanishvili in his opposition struggle, recommends people to believe in the ex-prime minister's final decision to quit politics. Concerning the influence of Ivanishvili on the government, Khaindrava said: "It is not visible. He was the leader of a coalition. He does not seem to interfere in the work of the Cabinet directly. But the fact that he has influence on members of the coalition should not be doubted. It was Ivanishvili who brought victory to Georgian Dream. Everyone still refers to him, in other words they feel and recognize his influence. But this inner feeling of theirs is hardly expressed." If Khaindrava's vision of Ivanishvili is correct, the billionaire's words in the interview with the First Channel should be understood as confirmation that he should not be relied on.
