By Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
On November 14 the Constitutional Court agreed that Armenia could join the Eurasian Economic Union (EaEU), according to the Minsk Treaty signed on October 10. Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan expressed readiness to join the Customs Union (CU) on September 3. The process of joining the CU and then the EaEU lasted for more than a year. Politics and experts have never ceased discussin the rationality of the initiative. Opinions differ from the absolutely negative to optimistic and pragmatic.
The opposition party Heritage rules out joining the EaEU, some of its members compare membership of the Union to treachery. Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the leader of the Armenian National Congress (ANC), stated that only a few dozen fringe politicians were opposed to joining the EaEU, including Granush Kharatyan of Preparliament, Artur Sakunts of the Vanadzor Office of the Helsinki Citizens’ Assembly and some others.
Artur Sakunts advised the president to take the opinions of people speaking out against the EaEU into account: “In reality, we are talking about a lot more opponents of joining the EaEU – one in every three people in our country advocates European integration.” Opponents of the EaEU insist that Armenia would lose the right to an independent customs policy, suffer from rising social tensions, reduction of investments and economic growth.
“By joining the EaEU, Armenia deprived itself of the economy of a liberal regime it has been developing for the last 20 years,” supposes politologist Yervand Bozoyan. In his opinion, the EaEU “was not ready for the launch” because the member states of the Union lack “real economies.”
Gagik Makaryan, the head of the Laborers’ Union, assumes that membership of the EaEU would give Armenia a wide range of opportunities to enter the huge Russian market. According to Prime Minister Ovik Abramyan, joining the EaEU “opens new horizons for growing volumes of exports of agricultural products and other goods. The authorities believe that, even in the worst scenario, the budget of Armenia would get $150-170 million in compensation from the customs duties of all the customs space, amounting to 1.13% of all the duties.
In general, experts say that Armenia can expect major positive changes from joining the EaEU only after realizing domestic reforms. Economists do not rule out a growth of GDP, a fall in prices, some specialists forecast rising inflation, customs fees for imports from non-members of the EaEU.
According to research of the Association of Competent Citizens, imports of some products, such as sugar, machines and medicine, will inevitably become more costly. Armenia has zero customs duty for imports of medicaments, the duty in the EaEU is 8-10%.
The evaluations and forecasts are not based on any figures. The problem is that there have not been any evaluations of the impact of EaEU membership on the economy. At least, members of the government claim that there have not been any.
To be continued
