By Victoria Panfilova, a columnist of Nezavisimaya Gazeta, exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Army General Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, president of Turkmenistan and commander-in-chief of the national Armed Forces, has chaired a session of the Security Council in Ashkhabad. The session rounded up the progress of the military and law enforcers, its attendees discussed objectives, including enforcement of national security. The Turkmen-Afghan border has been the main concern due to thousands of refugees nearby expecting asylum in Turkmenistan.
It was a closed-door session of the Turkmen Security Council. The president's press service made a special release, pointing out several points. In particular, it highlighted the high-scale military reform adopted in January 2009. National Security Minister Yalym Berdyev reported to the president. In his words, the organization carries out 'task-oriented work to enforce unity and consolidation of the society, stability and peace in the country, which is steadfast on the way towards progress and prosperity.'
The Turkmen military doctrine stipulates that the main threats to the country have external origins, so the reforms in the Armed Forces were focused on improving the role of the President's Personal Security Service, the Interior Ministry and the National Security Committee, stressing combating crime and political crimes respectively. However, this year, the government was forced to reconsider some points in the military doctrine due to the exacerbations in the situation around Afghanistan. In this regard, the Ashkhabad authorities asked the US to provide military and technical assistance. General Lloyd Austin, the head of the US Central Command, asked Congress to give Ashkhabad a positive answer. In his words, the government of Turkmenistan was willing to purchase US military equipment and vehicles to neutralize various threats.
Myrat Yslamov, the head of the State Border Service, reported on the situation on the Turkmen border. In response to his report, President Berdimuhamedov reminded that 'reliable protection of our borders is a very responsible obligation, a guarantee of security and peace, the lack of which make a happy life impossible for Turkmens.
Despite the session being closed, it has become clear that the Turkmen authorities are worried about the cross-border situation in Afghanistan, where the radical Taliban Movement has recently been activated. The government forces of Afghanistan are trying to drive them out of the northern areas of the country, to no avail so far. The Talibs are steadily moving towards the borders of Turkmenistan and Tajikistan.
In particular, the battle in the Afghan province of Badghis has been ongoing for months. Lately, as Afghan media report, the Talibs have taken over several residential areas. The governmental forces are putting up resistance, but they cannot keep the situation under control. So the Talibs are taking more and more territories under their control. The summoned air support bombs villages. Peaceful people die. Those who manage to save their lifes flee towards the Turkmen-Tajik border.
This information was confirmed by Tajik Defense Minister Sherali Mirzo at the meeting of CSTO Council of Defense Ministers in Dushanbe on Thursday. If Tajikistan is under the protection of the CSTO, it does not align with any military blocs or political associations as a neutral state. So, Turkmenistan may become the weak link in the destabilization of Central Asia.
Russian Special Envoy to Afghanistan Zamir Kabulov said that militants were grouping up in the northern provinces of Afghanistan. Some extremist groups, including the Taliban and Islamic State, created training centers in the districts. In fact, there are two flashpoints with a higher density of extremists. One such platform is located in the provinces of Badakhshan and Kunduz, another in Badghis and Faryab, not far from the Turkmen border. Zamir Kabulov placed special emphasis on the fact that the militants in these areas consist of various ethnicities, including Tajiks and Turkmen. 'In this light, I would not rule out attempts by the militants to break through the borders between Afghanistan and other countries of Central Asia. However, I am adamant that the authorities of the Central Asian states are ready for such scenarios and have already taken certain preventive measures,' the Russian diplomat noted.
Omar Nessar, the director of the Center for Studies of Modern Afghanistan, believes that Turkmenistan is the subject of a complicated game. 'The Talibs and some groups under the flag of the Taliban are operating in the northern districts of Afghanistan. Moreover, the Talibs are not controlled by Quetta Shura [the Supreme Council] of the Taliban, the office of which is located in Qatar. In private talks, the political authorities of the Taliban say that there are other groups operating there, but not them,' Omar Nessar told VK. The expert noted that the struggle for influence in Central Asia was having an upsurge. Ashkhabad was under pressure. Turkmenistan cannot cope with the situation alone, despite an agreement to form a buffer zone on the border of Afghanistan. According to the expert, Ashkhabad will be forced to call for aid from one of the larger players, should the Talibs approach the border and attempt to destabilize the situation in the country.
Shokhrat Kadyrov, Cand.Sc. (History), a leading fellow at the RAS Institute of Oriental Studies, believes that the country's government is unprepared to involve any foreign aid. 'It will break the neutral status of the country. But the situation with refugees, over a thousand of whom have gathered at the Turkmen border, needs a solution. Especially considering that they are ethnic Turkmens, descendents of those who were driven out of Turkmenistan by forces during collectivization and they have the right to claim for a return to the lands of Central Amu Darya sooner or later,' Shokhrat Kadyrov told VK.
Some powerful Turkmen clans fleeing the Soviet government in the 1920-1930s ended up in the north-western provinces of Afghanistan. They began laying claims to their native lands in the Serah and Merv oases after the fall of the USSR. The Gunorta Yoloten-Osman fields are located in the area, used for exports of gas to China.
Ashkhabad has not made up its mind on the Afghan refugees. In Shokhrat Kadyrov's words, if Turkmenistan asks the UN for help, it would immediately take up international commitments to let the refugees in, naturalize them, pay compensation for the harm done in the Soviet times. The expert explained that the problem was that the Turkmen refugees had a different cultural orientation. Turkmenistan, he went on, had given asylum to thousands of refugees fleeing the civil war in Tajikistan, but had never planned to give them land, preferring to keep the ethnic and demographic balance of the past 30 years.
