By Vestnik Kavkaza
This year Russian gas exports will fall by 4-5%, Energy Minister Alexander Novak said at the International Forum "Gas of Russia-2012". According to him, gas production in 2012 will grow by only 1% to about 677.1 billion cubic meters. At the same time, according to the optimistic scenario, by 2030 gas production in Russia may rise to about 950 billion cubic meters.
The president of the Russian Gas Society, Valery Yazev, spoke about the prospects of Russia's gas market: “The strategy for the development of the gas industry until 2030 adopted at the state level provides for production of 1 trillion cubic meters of gas per year in Russia by 2030. At the same time, we understand that domestic consumption will continue to grow, the Eastern gas vector will increase, and our long-time partner of yesterday, today and tomorrow, the European Union, will consume a significant amount of Russian gas by 2030. We believe that imports to Europe will increase by this time by 120-150 billion per year, despite the development of alternative energy and some coal renaissance, but the overall growth of the European economy and decline in its own production make Russian experts believe that a growth of imports to Europe will take place. This is a competitive market, a tough market, but Russia, "Gazprom" as the exporter (in accordance with Russian legislation, the only exporter of Russian gas is "Gazprom") and its wholly owned subsidiaries, will take a significant position there, or at least will not lose the current position. This is about 35% of European gas imports. At the same time, we understand that we need to improve ways to supply gas.
This year, we have started up the second branch of Nordstream; we supply 55 billion cubic meters of gas per year to Germany, Greifswald. We made the final investment decision on the construction of the "South Stream". On December 7 the first joint of the "South Stream" will be welded. At the end of 2015 South Stream will be put into operation. At its full capacity it is another transit way; 63 billion cubic meters of gas per year will go to Europe through "South Stream". In addition, we are increasing the component of liquefied gas. Today in Russia we have a single terminal of liquefied gas on Sakhalin, about 9.5-10 million tons per year. In addition, we launched a project "YamalSPG" - from 15 to 50 million tons of liquefied natural gas. And in the project "Shtokman", the launch of which is postponed, but none the less it will inevitably be built, there are three ways, 7.5 million tons of NL GI will be supplied in each way, i.e. a total of 22.5 million tons. These are projects of liquefied gas. Thus, we will supply to Europe pipeline gas and LNG. Here, perhaps, is what we are preparing. While respecting European legislation, we naturally want to reach up to the ultimate consumer of Russian gas and generate electricity in Europe, as do German, European concerns in Russia.”
“The European Union wants to be able to receive gas from other sources, so the Russian gas will continue to play an important role in Europe”, Beate Raabe, General Secretary of the European Union of Gas Industry, said. “Russia for years has made reliable gas supplies, it is generally accepted. Accordingly, the Russian gas will continue to be an important element of the basket of energy in Europe.
One of the advantages of renewable energy sources is that dependence on imports from anywhere can be reduced, so that renewable energy sources mean that this energy can be produced in Europe, and it is possible to reduce the import of oil and gas. But it is not directly aimed against Russia, for the Europeans it is simply uncomfortable to live with the idea that they have to constantly import energy. That is what is at stake. We're not talking about dependence but about interdependence. This is globalization. And the WTO promotes this. Export and import pull together the countries of the world. This touches upon energy in the same way. In addition, we see that now the emphasis on energy independence, as someone called it, is reduced.”
Speaking about renewable energy sources, Valery Yazev said that “this is a perpetual fear that fossil fuels run out. And it's justified. Speaking of gas, now the proved reserves in the world say that there is enough for 75-100 years. Discovery technologies for shale gas, which is prevailing and more evenly distributed in the world, say that the fear of depletion of gas reserves in the next 150 years is at least illiterate. That is, this concern is eliminated. Speaking of de-carbonising the economy, gas is just a good replacement for traditional coal power because there is much less CO2, and its use is much more technologically and economically justified in a number of other parameters, including the calorific value. With regard to the role and place of alternative energy, it is quite normal that many people are engaged in this. It is only necessary to understand the limits. I would disagree with Beate that alternative energy can help get rid of imports. It is no sot. Europe cannot provide alternative energy for itself on its territory, if we talk about the current level of technology. What is the alternative today? It is wind and sun. And they do not overlap even 20%-30% of the necessary requirements, so it is necessary to import, in particular, the electricity generated at stations with solar batteries, The project "Sahara", for example, in countries where there is much more sun. As for bio-fuels, we cannot forget that it is necessary to grow biomass somewhere, and in Europe people cannot do this. Again, it must be grown in Russia somewhere, using wood or other productive areas.
In general, when it comes to the forecasts by serious experts on the fuel and energy balance in 2030, and it can be extrapolated to 2040 and 2050, the role and place of alternative energy in the global energy industry is 20%. Some experts even give 10-12%, but I single out Europe alone, they can get 20%, but the remaining 80% is coal energy, oil, gas and nuclear energy. And we cannot give them up, this would be absurd, because today alternative energy is many times more expensive than traditional power. Both Germany and whole of Europe have spent hundreds of billions of marks, today euros, on subsidies for alternative energy. So when it comes to money, and when there is not much money, many things are dismissed.
What today is the renaissance of coal power in Europe? It is admittedly the dirtiest, most low-tech, but the price is determined – now there is an increase in power generation by means of coal power, because there is no money in Europe, the euro crisis, economic crisis, finance, debt, and Europe has been forced to use coal. What then can be said about gas, which is highly producible, affordable, continuously available in Europe from Russia, Algeria, Norway, Qatar, the Gulf – there are a lot of sources. I admit that in 10-15 years the large-scale production of shale gas will be in Europe. Who will give up gas?
If we are talking about the sources, “Nabucco" in the original version declared a capacity of 30 billion cubic meters of gas per year. In Shah Deniz there are no such reserves. We considered the reserves of Turkmenistan, which will go to Europe through "Nabucco", but for this, firstly, you need to get to Turkmenistan from China, which now takes all Turkmen gas, furnishing the southern fields; it has built a pipeline of 40 billion cubic meters of gas per year to China and wants to increase its capacity to 60 billion cubic meters of gas per year. I think Turkmenistan is largely lost for Europe. Secondly, we need to build a Trans-Caspian gas pipeline, which cannot be built with the status of the Caspian Sea, with its uncertain international status. So talk about stable, guaranteed sources of gas for "Nabucco" is not possible. The fact that "Gazprom" buys gas from Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and the talks are with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, is normal business practice.”
