By Vestnik Kavkaza
Europe doesn’t intend to cancel sanctions against Russia. They discuss the possibility of launching further restrictions in the sphere of cutting-edge oil and gas technologies. Moscow believes that it is senseless to put pressure on Russia by sanctions. The First Vice-Premier Igor Shuvalov stated in Davos that the EU and American methods have led to an opposite result – Vladimir Putin’s popularity ratings grew, while Russians consolidated behind their leader.
However, the growing economic crisis concerns Russian citizens, who complain of growing prices and decreasing salaries. Abel Aganbegyan, the head of the Department of Economic Theory and Politics of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, cannot cheer Russians up. According to him, stagnation in Russia began in 2013 and continued in 2014; and recession started in the fourth quarter of 2014. “Stagnation means major macroeconomic indices fluctuate about zero; recession means major macroeconomic indices decrease,” the expert reminds. “I mean a decrease of the GDP, real incomes, trade turnover, and so on.”
Aganbegyan predicts that this year will be the worst: “The GDP will decrease by 3-5%; industrial production will decrease; investments will reduce by 10-15%; the worst thing is that social indices will worsen as well – real incomes and salaries will reduce. The unemployment rate will grow by 650 thousand people. Devaluation of the ruble will go on, but its pace will be lower than in 2014, when the ruble exchange rate showed a twofold decrease against dollar.”
The expert states there is a great outflow of capital from Russia: “2014 broke a record: for the first time in the history of our country $151.5 billion flew out of Russia. Trying to improve the situation, we are spending our reserves intensively. In autumn 2013 we had $729 billion; today we have less than $600 billion; i.e. they reduced by $130 billion. We stepped into stagnation and recession with a huge debt, but it wasn’t a national debt – we have a small foreign economic debt – it was a huge corporate debt, i.e. a debt of enterprises, organizations, and banks. The general debt of Russia reduced significantly - by 130 billion. The government fairly believes that 2015 will be a year of crisis.”
