Last Sunday Abkhaz President Sergey Bagapsh died in a Moscow hospital of lung cancer. Bagapsh’s demise triggered a whole wave of comments and speculations on the possible future of Abkhazia, which gained independence during his presidency. VK’s correspondent asked Georgian political experts their opinion on the matter.
Mamuka Areshidze, expert on the Caucasian states: I have no doubts that it will be the Kremlin that will appoint the next Abkhaz president. The last time Moscow failed to use other ethnicities of Abkhazia to gain support for its candidate, but this time the Russian politicians won’t make this mistake again.
Nika Imnaishvili, political expert: Sergey Bagapsh was a partisan of Abkhaz independence. He wanted his republic to be equally independent from Russia as it became independent from Georgia. Despite his seeming loyalty, he didn’t yield to any of Moscow’s demands. For example, the treaty on a Russian military base deployment on Abkhaz territory remains unratified, Russian citizens can’t purchase land in Abkhazia.
The Abkhaz constitution still states that only ethnic Abkhazians can be elected president. Bagapsh unofficially supported the aspiration of the Abkhaz Orthodox Church for independence from the Russian
Patriarchate. He didn’t let Russian business into the Abkhaz state sector of the economy.
And I don’t think that this political course will change, no matter who takes Bagapsh’s office. And this course for “an ultimately independent Abkhazia” will very soon clash with Russian interests in the Caucasus. So it’s the last chance for Moscow to achieve a certain balance in the Abkhaz government.
Timur Mjavia, ex-chairman of the Abkhaz autonomous republic council, currently exiled from Abkhazia.
- Have you met Bagapsh in person and if so, what’s your opinion of him?
- A knew him very well for a long time. But, as they say, it’s immoral to speak badly of the deceased, so I won’t make any extensive comments.
- When Bagapsh came to power, some experts expected an easing in relations between Abkhazia and Georgia. They said that he is more inclined to co-operate with Georgia than his predecessor, Vladislav
Ardzinba…
- That turned out to be an illusion. Both Bagapsh and Ardzinba were Abkhaz nationalists.
- They say that Alexander Ankvaba is a possible candidate to replace Bagapsh. In the Soviet epoch he worked in Tbilisi for a long time. Do you think Abkhaz-Georgian relations would improve if he’s to become
President?
- No. Over these 20 years Georgia and Abkhazia drifted too far apart. This process is irreversible now.
- You are an expert on Abkhaz society. What do you think, would internal political disagreements worsen as a result of the current situation?
- Of course. The death of Bagapsh means the end of the political balance he maintained. It’s hard to say how serious the conflicts will be, but they will re-emerge, that’s for sure.
Interview by Georgy Kalatozishvili, exclusively to VK
