The forthcoming elections in Abkhazia were discussed on the radio station Ekho Kavkaza. The participants in the discussion were Andrey Babitsky, the political scientist Irakly Hintba from Suhumi and the editor-in-chief of Vestnik Kavkaza, Alexei Vlasov.
Babitsky: The first question is for you, Irakly. All three candidates for the presidential post are politicians, who started their careers in Soviet times. Their political biographies and careers have been built over the last twenty years. That is why it looks like a nomenclature competition, as differences in the experience, views and political culture of the candidates are minimal. They are children of a passing or already passed epoch. Are the necessities of Abkhazian society so small that this narrow circle of candidates reflects its hopes?
Hintba: It is true that all three candidates represent the “old elites”, which have been ruling at this or that stage of the political development of Abkhazia. The crisis of political leadership in Abkhazian society is obvious: lack of new young people, promising and having sufficient experience, who can compete with representatives of the old political elite. However, all three candidates, especially Sergey Shamba and Alexander Ankvab, are proposing as candidates for the post of vice-president promising young people, who have support in society and good reputations. As for Raul Hadzhimov and Svetlana Dzhergeniya, it is like a symbolic bridge between the current epoch and the epoch of Vladislav Ardzinba, which is highly respected by our people.
Babitsky: I see. Young people are the second echelon. Society needs these young people, and the current system prevents them from being up-front in political life, it doesn’t give them an opportunity to take key positions at the centre of political life. It is true?
Hintba: I think a natural change of political generations will take place in Abkhazia. No revolutionary changes will be observed in the future. As for Shamil Adzinba and Mikhail Logua, who have been appointed candidates for the position of vice-president, they are people of the current political system of Abkhazia. Nevertheless, they are middle-aged reliable men, who have military merits (it is a necessary criterion for a candidate to a political position in Abkhazia) and can attract voices. I think the fact Sergey Shamba’s motto is about involving young people to the political system is a great advantage of his campaign.
Babitsky: Alexei, the Kremlin didn’t participate in the previous elections anyway. It seems Russia doesn’t care who the head of Abkhazia will be, as it can find common language with anyone, or perhaps Russian influence on Abkhazia disappeared or is minimal. What do you think?
Vlasov: The answer is simple. It is not crucial for Moscow to choose among Ankvab and Shambam, as both candidates follow similar directions: the development of economic ties with Russia, the building of Abkhazian independence and strategic partnership with Moscow. That is why the situation of fatal choice, which was artificially formed in 2004, will not take place, I think. It means the participation of Russian political technologists is strictly limited by Moscow.
Babitsky: Alexei, in what measure is the Russian electoral system, or even the political system, succeeded by Abkhazia? Young people only begin their political life, and the nomenclature elite copies itself from elections to elections in Abkhazia.
Vlasov:This problem not only exists in Abkhazia. The arrival of fresh politicians to former Soviet systems is always accompanied by a sad process: they play according to the rules established by previous generations. That means, notwithstanding age and inter-generational conflict, there is no renewal, as a new person becomes a part of the system which existed before him. This concerns Russia as well. I think is happening in Abkhazia. That is why I doubt a systematic renewal of political realities will take place in the republic in the near future, even if a new generation is in office five or six years later.
Babitsky: Iralky, the situation in Georgia differs from Russia or any other country of the former Soviet space: a generation of young politicians carried out serious reforms. I understand that Abkhazia considers them cautiously. However, the situation is obvious: a group of young reformers has changed the social and political system of the country dramatically. Does Abkhazia consider this experience?
Hintba: Of course, Abkhazian experts and politicians follow reforms in Georgia. As for the dramatic changes which took place in this country, they are connected with powerful foreign support. External support fo modernization is the main condition for such changes, and we always talk about it and urge the European Union and Russia to support Abkhazia. Nevertheless, in Abkhazia, I believe, th political elite will come off naturally in five to seven years.
Babitsky: Thank you, Irakly. Alexei, what do you think, if Raul Hadzhimba, who stands for radical security of Abkhazian national interests, comes to office, will it influence Russian-Abkhazian relations negatively?
Vlasov: I don't think it will negatively influence, as it is a part of the political game, in which Hadzhimba takes his place. Everyone plays his own role. Despite whether the Kremlin likes or doesn’t like these roles, the current authorities of Russia are satisfied with them. It means that, whoever wins, the system will not change.
Radio Ekho Kavkaza.
