On August 8, 2008, Georgian forces attacked South Ossetia and destroyed a part of its capital, Tskhinvali.
Russia, aiming to defend South Ossetia’s population, sent its forces to the republic and, after a five-day war, pushed the Georgians out of South Ossetia.
At the end of August Russia recognized South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence. In response, Georgia severed diplomatic relations with Russia and declared South Ossetia and Abkhazia to be occupied territories.
The director general of the Current Political Situation Center, Sergey Mikheyev, believes that South Ossetia should continue its struggle for peace, but should be ready for anything, as Georgia still intends to settle the matter in a military way. It’s not clear, however, whether Tbilisi will dare to start a new campaign.
“In the near future such a scenario is improbable. Still, one should not be certain that the current situation will not change. It’s not clear who will come to power in Georgia in the future,” Mikheyev says. According to the expert, the situation in South Ossetia itself is no less important. A lot of things depend on the way the republic will develop.
Speaking about international recognition of South Ossetia’sindependence, the political analyst noted the fact that the republic still isn’t recognized by the international community is not surprising. “In such cases it’s quite common. The process of recognition may take many years,” he said.
Commenting on the coming presidential elections in the republic, Mikheyev said he is worried about South Ossetia, where the struggle for power among the elite may damage political stability. “Internal conflicts are especially dangerous for a small state. Unfortunately, in South Ossetia they may occur,” Mikheyev admitted.
"Georgia still has plans to use force. Measures taken to improve the country’s military are evidence of that,” Dr. Alexey Vlasov, the director general of the Post-Soviet Republics Research Center of Moscow State University, believes.
In such circumstances, Russia remains the only guarantor of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s security. In spite of all the statements by President Saakashvili, who says Georgia is interested in peace, one can hardly trust the Georgian authorities, the scholar says.
“In the last three years, South Ossetia has been facing several problems, so its development is a hard process,” Vlasov admits. Still, the republic’s population supports the idea of independence and peaceful development as a sovereign state. At the same time, the problems the republic is facing are really very hard, Vlasov says, adding that these problems are not always well solved.
Speaking about the coming presidential elections in South Ossetia, Vlasov said that the society seeks new people, new politicians. “The country is a small one, but there are many political parties, many candidates. There are different views on the way the republic should develop. It’s very important for the next president to elaborate a certain development plan, a certain strategy,” Vlasov underlines.
The director general of International Political Research Institute, Evgeny Minchenko, says that Georgia is unlikely to try to start a new war. “The conflict remains unsettled, skirmishes occur from time to time on the border, but Tbilisi has no resources to start aggression.”
RIA Novosti, August 5, 2011
