The end of 2011 was marked for Turkey by another sharpening of relations with the European family. It seems Turkish hopes for becoming an EU member won’t be fulfilled in the future: the leaders of Germany and France, the two European states defining the EU's fate, have stated this many times. The French parliament’s decision on the 22nd of December, criminalizing denial of the Armenian genocide in the Ottoman Empire in 1915, became one more gap between Muslim Turkey and Christian Europe. The tough reaction from Ankara was aimed at preventing the French Senate considering this bill. Analysts are careful about the chances of adopting this bill in the upper chamber of the parliament, since after September parliamentary elections the ruling party yielded control to leftist powers – socialists, communists and greens. However, the socialists proposed punishment for genocide in 2006. But the Senate declined this bill.
Today the balance of forces is different. Considering the recent initiative of the ruling party, both Sarkozy’s party and the Socialists stand for criminalization of denying genocide. It means there are many chances the major political forces of the country will reach consensus on this issue, and the bill will be adopted. It will be sent to the Senate for consideration by late January. The government of France aims to ratifythe bill in the shortest period.
Previously, many experts thought that several months would be spent on consideration of the issue in the Senate. It fostered ideas that the initiative would be discussed right ahead of the presidential elections, the National Assembly would adopt the bill, but the Senate would decline it after the elections, while Sarkozy would gain political benefit from the situation.
However, it appeared the French Senate doesn't have several months. It seems that Sarkozy is in a hurry to consider the bill in the upper chamber due to internal political motives. The current president is trying to keep his word, given to the Armenian community ahead of his first presidential term in 2007. The “Genocide” theme appeared ahead of the next election campaign: on April 22nd, 2012, the first round of the presidential elections will take place. At the same time, the current rating of the president is not high: according to Journal du Dimanche Sunday, it is 34%.
However, the question is: will internal political dividends for Sarkozy compensate objective foreign political losses for France? It probably won’t, and the crisis situation in the Middle East in 2012 will reach its nadir. The worsening of relations between France and Turkey will contribute to it.
Orkhan Sattarov exclusively to VK
