Yesterday the media was full of reports of huge rallies in Cairo, gathered to denounce unlawful actions of the Police during the Port-Said football game disturbance, when at least 74 people were killed in clashes with police forces. Radical fans of the Al-Ahli FC took the streets to demand justice. The ruling Emergency Military Council promised to look into the problem. Nevertheless, it is obvious that even a year after the Egyptian revolution the country still lacks stability, and it is virtually impossible to make any long-term prognoses. However, Russian expert Boris Dolgov from the RAS’ Institute of Oriental Studies attempted to do that.
On the first results of the revolution
The major factor that triggered the Egyptian revolution was the socio-economic crisis in the country, the corruption and the absence of true democracy. So what are the results of the revolution? Of course, it was one of the most important events of the year and it was the turning point for the whole Arab world/ This event defined the development of the whole region and tipped the global balance of powers. The ruling elite in Egypt changed completely. The Muslim Brothers’ “Pary of Freedom and Justice’ von 47% of votes and 235 parliamentary seats, salafit party ‘Nur’ won 24% and 121 seats, only 8% of Egyptians voted for Liberal-Democratic Party “Wafd’ and 7% - for liberal-democratic coalition. So, as you see, pro-Islamist forces won.
On the new ideology
Many journalists regard the Muslim Brothers’ Party and the ‘Nur’ party as the same thing and say that 71% of parliamentary seats went to islamists. But I wouldn’t agree. First of all, these parties do not form a coalition, they have many differences. Muslim Brothers were allies of left-oriented political forces, islamist as well as liberal. One of these forces, the ‘Dignity’ party whose ideology is strictly civic is headed by the future presidential candidate Handem Sabahi. The new political forces of Egypt follow an ideology that is rooted in Arab-Muslim culture but they do not preach ‘Islam state’, they claim they want to form a new democratic state.
On inter-confessional conflict
It is important to note the positive role of Al-Azgar sheikhs who support the project of a democratic state with equal opportunities for all confessions. However, the problem of inter-confessional conflicts is still acute as during the pre-election period there were some clashes between the Coptic Christians (20% of Egypt’s population) and the Muslims that resulted in casualties.
On youth movements
Youth liberal movements didn’t get enough support even though they were the motive power of the revolution. It happened because liberal forces in general do not enjoy wide popular support in Egypt. The youth movements were preoccupied with demonstrations and rallies and didn’t pay enough attention to the promotion of their ideas among the electorate that is why they didn’t win much support during the elections. Moreover, after the movements were accused of being financed from abroad, and this accusation played its negative role.
On the army
The army is the only institution left from the previous regime. One shouldn’t forget that it was the army that played the key role in the victory of the revolution. Nevertheless, the fact that some generals are still connected to the previous regime is a source of serious problems for Egypt. Historically, Egyptian army is an important power institution: after the 1952 revolution all Presidents were from Army milieus. Right now there is no conflict between the army and the parliament. But what will happen after the 2012 presidential elections?
On foreign politics
The current minister is already the fourth since the Egyptian revolution. We can see some tendencies. Nabil el-Araby, a former Foreign Minister, who is now the Secretary-General of the Arab League, announced that Egyptian politics should come closer to those of the Palestinian movement, with opening of the crossing to the Gaza Strip and cooperation with Palestinian organizations. Egypt has played a significant role in the reconciliation of Hamas and Fatah. It was also declared that Iran is not an enemy of Egypt. There were also some announcements about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Anti-Israeli sentiments were particularly strong when the Israeli Air Force, attacking Palestinian groups, accidentally hit the territory of Egypt, killing several Egyptian border soldiers. There were protests in front of the Israeli Embassy, their flags were torn away, there were some demands to stop any diplomatic relations with Israel and even to break the Camp David Accords, etc. This is the tendency. Here I would like to say that in my opinion one of the results of the Egyptian revolution will be the impossibility of Egypt becoming a faithful ally of the West or the US and will never be a guarantor of Israel's safety, as it was under Mubarak. These relations with the West will not of course be fully broken, this is obvious because we know that Egypt is receiving some financial aid – 2.5 billion dollars annually – the main part of this aid was spent on the army. This situation presupposes a continuation of the relations with the West.
On the country’s prospects
the main challenge for the new authorities, the same as for any authorities in Egypt, is the socio-economic factor and particularly economics. I will remind you briefly that Egypt is a country in the desert where only 4-6% of the land can be used for economic activity. More than 90% of the population of Egypt lives on this 4-6% of territory. An 80-million-strong population. There is enormous unemployment, especially among young people. Tackling this problem is the main task of the current authorities of Egypt. How will it be done? There are some projects of external help from the countries of the Gulf, while the US and the European Union offer their financial assistance. But it is impossible to live only on this assistance. It is necessary to develop economic projects that will be adequate for the solution of this problem. Here they need a very wise socially-oriented policy to solve or alleviate these problems. This is first. Second, the new political authorities of Egypt are supported by large groups of the population. The votes show us the electoral support, the support from society. Many things depend on whether these new authorities will manage to answer the hopes of society. And this should be done in the nearest future. If this is postponed, it is possible that those strata of society that participated in the revolution will not see the real fruits of their fight and then it might provoke new political changes. Here some new forces could come on the stage – for instance, radicals, Islamists or some others that would try to calm down these protests.
