By Ekaterina Tesemnikova, exclusively to VK
Four rallies took place in Moscow on 4 February. Two major ones – the opposition rally ‘For Fair Elections’ on Bolotnaya Square and the pro-Putin demonstration on Poklonnaya Hill – were accompanied by two smaller ones, organized by Russian Liberal-Democratic Party and its leader Zhirinovsky and by Konstantin Borov. According to the opposition, the parliamentary elections held on 4 December, which resulted in the ruling ‘United Russia’ party winning more than a half of the parliamentary seats, were conducted with an enormous number of violations. The protest is aimed at preventing violations and fraud from happening at the upcoming presidential elections. The reaction of the Russian media to the demonstrations was predictable: liberal papers supported the opposition, while state-run media limited themselves to counting the numbers of participants in the rallies. In contrast, western media put the demonstrations in the focus of their attention.
Radio Liberty told its audience that one of its correspondents took part in the pro-Putin demonstration and was paid for it by the rally’s organizers as he was promised.
The Voice of America reported that both the opposition and pro-authority rallies were a success: both parties managed to gather thousands of people on the streets of Russian cities and towns despite terrible frost. According to Andrei Tsygankov, an expert of San-Francisco University, the fact that the government managed to get at least as many people as the opposition to rally in its support demonstrates that the Kremlin has regained control over the situation on the eve of presidential polls; that is why there will be no promised dialogue with the opposition or any concessions.
David Satter, an expert from Hudson University, said that the demonstrations were just for letting off steam and the situation will stabilize again after Putin is re-elected. However, the expert is sure that, even though Putin’s regime is incapable of changing itself, Russian people have felt themselves to be masters of their destiny, and if the demonstrations don't have any immediate effect, they still herald the end of the regime.
Professor Robert Orttung from George Washington University, on the other hand, assessed the situation as dangerous for the current Russian authorities. He said that Russian people are no longer afraid, and everyone feels free to criticize Putin, which is why the government will have to make some concessions.
Deutsche Welle points out that in fact the protestors agree amongst themselves on only one thing: they want fair elections and they don’t want Putin to be president again. The anti-Putin movement also lacks a single and commonly-supported presidential candidate. However, it is important that partisans of all political camps are represented among the protestors, from pro-western liberals to ultra-communists or ultra-nationalists. So it seems unlikely that such a heterogenic movement could reform Russia’s political system or even prevent Putin from winning the election. However, the protestors would also be satisfied if Putin fails to win the first round and has to compete with any given candidate in the second round. This will deprive Putin of his ‘unanimous national leader’ aura, which in its turn that would make the ruling elite revise its attitude towards him.
