by Peter Lyukimson, Israel. Exclusively for VK
The US Presidential Administration had active contacts with the Israeli prime minister’s office last week within the framework of preparations for the visit of the latter to Washington on March 5. President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will doubtlessly discuss the issue of attacking Iran. Their positions are generally clear. The Americans believe that Israel should avoid any decisions until late 2012. Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak reminded the US delegation that Israel is a sovereign state and can make decisions on its own.
Meanwhile, Western states reached diplomatic success in pressurizing Iran in the second half of February: India and China announced plans to reduce oil imports from Iran. Israel’s largest bank, Hapoalim, suffered a cyber attack on February 20. Hackers managed to breach the first 2-3 protection systems and download some secret information, despite efforts of specialists from the Israel Security Agency (Shabak).
Experts say that the cyber attack on the bank was prepared by skilled specialists working for the government. Iran was suspected of the attack. Iran did not admit blame for the hacking. But neither did it deny involvement, reminding that computers controlling uranium enrichment in Iran were attacked, Tehran insists that Israel was behind it.
Mohammad Hazai, Iranian representative to the UN, handed UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon a complaint concerning Israel on February 22. Tehran accuses Israel of financing and training militants killing Iranian scientists and unjustified accusations of attacks on diplomats in Thailand, India, Georgia and Azerbaijan. Hazai says that Israel is stinging Iran, confidently knowing that there would be no punishment.
Israeli observers say that the complaints were clearly filed to gain the additional support of UN members and its head in the light of denying IAEA inspectors access to the military complex of Parchin. Israel noted an article of German military expert Hans Ruhle in the Die Welt newspaper, in which he stated that Israel could halt the Iranian nuclear program by 10 years with a preventative strike. Iran has 25-30 nuclear facilities, with only 6 of them being vital for nuclear bomb construction. The factories are located in Natanz, Isfahan, Arak, Parchin, Bushehr and Fordo. Ruhle is confident that Israeli Air Forces are capable of destroying the six facilities with 25 out of its 87 F-15 fighters and fewer F-16s. F-15s will use the GBU-28 bunker bombs and F-16 – light bombs. The heavy water factory in Arak will pose no problem, 10 F-16s with GBU-10 bombs would be required to destroy it.
Experts of the Pentagon disagree with Ruhle’s opinion, stating that Israel has minimal chances of succeeding. The Pentagon says that Israel would need at least 100 fighters to travel about 1500 km over hostile states with refueling to pass the anti-air defenses of Iran and bomb numerous reactors synchronically, taking into account that some of them are located underground. Thus, a preventative attack would be a very complicated military operation, unlike the attack on the Syrian reactor in 2007 and the Iraqi reactor of Osirak in 1981.
