Sergei Mikheev, director of the Center of political conjuncture, told 'VK' correspondent how Russia's policy in the North and South Caucasus could change after March, 4.
- Sergei Alexandrovich, how will the situation in the Caucasus change with the election of the new president?
Sergei Mikheev, director of the center of political conjuncture. I think the situation will not seriously change in terms of state policy, because generally those projects and those policies which were conducted in the North Caucasus under Medvedev were the result of the coordination of activities between Medvedev and Putin. I do not expect any principally new policies or approaches on the North Caucasus, though I think Putin’s return to presidency will play rather positive role, because in the Caucasus there is respect towards him as for a strong leader, and this has traditionally been important.
- And how we will get along with Georgia?
As regards Georgia, I am almost sure that, while Saakashvili is in power, there will be no serious progress in the countries’ relations. When a new president comes to Georgia everything will depend on the position he will take. I do not think Putin is ready for a move towards Saakashvili, especially because Saakashvili still brings forward quite unacceptable requirements. But, nonetheless, some technical progress is possible, for example, transport connections between Moscow and Tbilisi and talks about mutually profitable trade.
- How may the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh change?
I do not think the coming of Putin will in some way seriously influence the situation in Nagorny Karabakh. It is a dead end, in my view, first of all, because of the uncompromising positions of the sides, Baku and Yerevan. And international agency, even from Putin, is unlikely to change anything. Europe, the U.S. and Russia approached this question and nobody managed yet to achieve a successful result. I think it is not because international negotiators are wrong or ineffective, but first of all because none of them succeeds in persuading Baku and Yerevan to seek for real compromise. That’s it. Probably there will be some initiatives in this direction. Medvedev actively dealt with this question during his presidency. But I do not yet expect any radical change or miraculous formula that Putin can invent. Let’s see, there are 6 years ahead of us.
