By Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK
The article by the Foreign Policy journal stating that Israeli Air Force had gained access Azeri abandoned aerodromes near Iranian border caused quite a stir as it was referring to ‘independent sources and US intelligence services officers’. Foreign Policy is an agency of great authority, and the topic itself is very timely, so this piece of news became one of the most discussed by all leading world’s media. The majority of experts, including military ones, agree that the access to Azeri airdromes would give Israel a strategic advantage if Tel-Aviv decides to bomb Iranian nuclear facilities: the bombers wouldn’t have to refuel in midair; they could avoid overloading themselves with warheads, etc; so the air-strike would be more efficient. The main question here is whether the information of Israel gaining access to the airdromes is accurate, or it’s a deliberate misinformation.
Previously Azerbaijan on various occasions assured that it won’t let anyone to use its territories in any acts of aggression against any neighboring states. Azerbaijan signed the joint ‘Nakhchvan declaration’ after the meeting of Azeri, Turkish and Iranian FMs. The fourth paragraph of this document stipulates none of the tree sides would agree to any other party to use their territories for any actions that might lead to hostilities. Right after the Nakhchevan meeting Azeri Defense Minister Safar Abiyev went on a working visit to Iran and once again assured Teheran that Azerbaijan will not take any anti-Iranian steps. Official Baku says it has friendly relations with Iran, the home-country of 30 millions of ethnic Azeris.
All these prior events made one expect a swift official confutation of the information on aerodromes by Azeri government. And so it happened: official Baku refuted this ‘leak’ in some quite harsh expressions. The head of external connections of the Presidential Administration Norvuz Mamedov called it ‘blatant slender and lies. While commenting the incident to Azeri 1news.az media agency he stressed that Azerbaijan has an independent political course, and the state’s enemies try to hamper it by all means possible. He also pointed out that Azerbaijan had already faced similar threats in the past. The official also expressed his concern by the fact of publication of such a canard by such a respected agency and by re-publication of it by various other media agencies. ‘All people who know at least a little bit about the current situation would have understood that it’s misinformation in an instance. We would very much like to know who is behind this publication, is it some state or organization, or is it Mark Perry’s personal opinion? If so, it is ridiculous”, said Mr Mamedov.
So it seems that the head of external connections of the Presidential Administration sees this publication as an attempt to pressure his country. It is true that such an open military alliance with Israel would be quite risky for Azerbaijan. It would also be very uncharacteristic of Azeri government, which is usually extremely cautious as far as such unpredictable neighbor as Iran is concerned. If Israeli military bases were to appear in Azerbaijan, that would give Iran a good pretext to deliver airstrikes against Azeri territory, including oil-processing facilities – and Baku would have never taken such a risk. So it isn’t surprising that the Foreign Policy’s article can be perceived as a provocation against Azerbaijan.
However, it is not the only version. Other experts see this ‘leak’ as an attempt to influence Israel by the US that tries to prevent it from bombing Iran. Israeli media accuses the White House of deliberate revealing of secret information in order to prevent Israel from attacking Iran. According to ex-Pentagon employee, expert on Iran and Iraq Michael Rubin, who gave an interview to the Turan media agency, if this leak is deliberate, the US government tried to pressure both Israel and Iran. According to the expert, the level of trust between Israel and the US has never been so low since the Eisenhower administration. He also pointed out that this leak also creates certain mistrust in Azeri-American relations.
It is true that Baku is in no way happy with such a ‘present’ to the anti-Azeri groups in Iran from Washington. These forces use everything to further aggravate Iranian-Azeri relations and turn Teheran towards Yerevan.
Of course, there is a great number of factors that prohibit Azerbaijan from taking such an open anti-Iranian step: there are state security and economical concerns, as even Russian ‘C-300’ missile defense systems supplied to Azerbaijan can grant the safety of all oil infrastructure in the country. Such a development might affect the whole structure of European energy security.
Another reason of of religious and political nature. It is well known that Baku enjoys a vide support of a great number of Muslim states during the votes on issues related to Nagorno-Karabakh in international organizations, and it is also an active member of some Islam states organizations. And none of these states, apart from Iran, pays a great deal of attention to Azeri-Israeli economic cooperation, as Azerbaijan is not the only Muslim state cooperating with Israel. In its turn, Azerbaijan demonstrates an unambiguous position on Israeli-Palestinian conflict and supports the creation of two states – Jewish and Arab – in Palestine, so no one can accuse the state of lacking ‘Muslim solidarity’.
However, cooperation is one thing, while a military alliance against Muslim Iran is quite another. Such a step would have damaged Azerbaijan’s authority among the world’s Muslim community irreparably. In the same time inner radical Muslim groups would have activated their efforts, and the opposition would have tried to play the ‘Islam card’.
And finally Baku has to look back at Ankara, and the recent visit of Turkish PM to Iran showed that the Turkish Republic won’t stop its anti-Israeli rhetoric any time soon. The PM also expressed his confidence in the fact that Iranian officials don’t lie when they say that Iran isn’t constructing any weapons of mass destruction. He also advised the Western partisans of nuclear non-proliferation to turn their attention to Israel instead, who possesses a great number of nuclear warheads which poses a great thereat to the whole region. So if Baku would have supported Israel in the suggested manner, that would have definitely affected its relations with Ankara.
It seems to be quite obvious that the article in the Foreign Policy paper has no solid basis. The version stipulating that the US tries to prevent the agreement on aerodrome use by the Israeli AF also appears to be groundless. In any case Baku couldn’t have let such a treachery by Washington pass unnoticed, so the US wouldn’t risk spoiling bilateral relations by such an unclever step. Relations with Azerbaijan are far more important to the US that another information attack against Israel. However, whether such an attack really had place is also an open question – by betraying Israel in such a manner US would only push it to independent actions, which is what Washington is actually trying to prevent.
All these discussions are only valid if the Foreign Policy publication actually was a thought-through political action. But it also might turn out that there was no deep political thought behind this publication at all: even major agencies like chasing sensations. And it is very unlikely that Israeli warplanes would get to Azerbaijan any time soon – it is unclear how would they get there, as the airspace between the two courtiers is closed for military aviation.
