WWIII: to look into the future

By Peter Lukimson, exclusively to VK

Israel held ‘role play games’ aimed at determining the most probable scenario if Israel strikes Iranian nuclear facilities. The result of the games turned out to be very interesting.

To understand the magnitude of the action, one should know figures involved in it: the ex-Secretary of the Government, ex-head of the Israeli Air Force and a number of top experts known not only within Israel.

According to the scenario, in October, 2012 the Mossad gets three independent reports from its agents in Iran that Iranian nuclear scientists have started a critical stage of uranium enrichment and are almost ready to build an A-bomb. All the necessary equipment is hidden underground in the region of Kum. The information is soon confirmed by a high-ranking Iranian official working for Mossad.

The Israeli president calls his US counterpart and says the sanctions were not as efficient as everyone hoped. Barack Obama asked Netanyahu not to take any decisive action until the presidential polls in the US that are due to be held in a couple of weeks: pre-election polls show that Obama and Romney are neck to neck.

At the same time there is an unexpected breakthrough in the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Autonomy administration: the sides manages to overcome their main disagreements and are commencing to draw a draft treaty. Both sides are interested in keeping this information in secret, but the US leaks this information to the press in order to consolidate Obama’s position. Both Israeli and Palestinian radicals criticize their governments; both leaders have to renounce the ‘rumors’ and the negotiations come to a dead-end once again. Nevertheless, the fact that the positions of Israel and Palestine became as close as they’ve never have been strengthens Israel’s position in the region.

In any case Netanyahu sees that any outcome of the US elections might not be to Israel’s advantage and launches preparations for airstrike against Iranian nuclear facilities. At the same time the PM does all he can to convince the media and the public that nothing’s going on.

The Israeli top officials still argue, but the major part of them supports the strike against Iran before the elections in the US, and even without any prior warning for the Americans.

Israeli AF bombs 7 nuclear facilities of Iran on October, 16 night. As the result of the strike against the Natnaz plant, there emerges a risk of nuclear contamination of the territories of neighboring Iraq. Israel looses 10 aircraft with their crews.

Less than 3 weeks remain till the elections in the US. Israel hopes that Obama won’t dare to criticize its actions as he wouldn’t want to loose the votes of American Jews, nevertheless, the US President issues a statement calling Israel’s actions inadequate: no sanctions are being introduced, however, as it Israel launched the campaign by itself, it shouldn’t hope for the Us support.

In the meantime the Israeli government realizes that the damage to the Iranian nuclear facilities isn’t so bad and can be quickly repaired. It also realizes that Israel made a mistake that can prove fatal for the state’s very existence. Iran issues an official statement saying that by attacking a country that has never intended to create nuclear weapons Israel has put itself outside the international law. So Iran has a right to attack Israel wherever it wants to. Iran also declares that it is ready to protect all its allies in the Islam world against the US and Israel and calls on the US allies (implying Saudi Arabia) not to take up any ‘unwise steps’.

At the same time all Iranian opposition leaders are being arrested and a campaign of terror against Israeli and US scientists begins - as an act of revenge for Iranian nuclear scientists’ deaths.

A huge wave of anti-Israeli demonstrations rises all over the Muslim world. Hezbollah is ordered to conduct a non-stop 10-hour shelling of Israeli territory. Even though Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasralla is very apprehensive about the consequences of his organization being involved into a full-blown war, he carries out the order.

Iran also calls on Hamas to do the same, but (according to the experts creating the scenario) the leaders of the Gaza Stripe suddenly refuse to do so.

Iran issues another anti-Israeli statement saying that the war with Israel might last for many years, but there is only one possible outcome for it: ‘Zionist state would be wiped off the face of the Earth. At the same time Iran launches a series of terrorist attacks against Israeli facilities in different countries of the world as well as in Israel itself. As a result of a dirty bomb explosion, the part of the city’s population is evacuated; there are casualties among the civilians. Israeli media blames Netanyahu government for voluntaristic policy.

Netanyahu addresses the people and said that the main threat has been eliminated, but now they have to prepare themselves for possible response from the part of Iran. At the same time Israeli AF attacks Iranian cruisers and military bases.

Then Netanyahu has complex negotiations with Obama, Putin and other world leaders. Obama can’t forgive Israel the increase of oil prices by 300%, which could lead to his defeat in the elections. But still Netanyahu asks him to tell the Iranian government that after the neutralization of Iranian nuclear facilities Israel sees the conflict as resolved and if Iran promises not to take up A-bomb creation again, Israel won’t attack.

European media blame Israel for unleashing a war, while experts predict a long-term ‘war of attrition’. At the same time the level of efficiency of the Israel’s strike against the nuclear facilities remains unclear.

In the course of the conflict Iran makes a strategic mistake: shoots down an Israeli passenger airplane or strikes against some other civic target. Netanyahu uses the tragedy to turn the world’s public opinion to Israeli side: while Israel strikes only against military objects, Iran kills civilians. So it is Iran that should be declared outside of law.

The public attitude changes and with it – the position of the US and EU governments. They promise to deliver arms to Israel under the condition that it wages the war within the boundaries of the international law.

The second week of the war sees sporadic missile attacks against Tel-Aviv by Iran, Lebanon and Gaza. The latter is represented not by Hamas, but by small terroristic groups. Israeli-Egyptian border is calm: no matter how much the new Egyptian government hates Israel, it is interested in the fastest restoration of peace, as the increase in oil prices and decrease of navigation via the Sueя Channel has delivered a serious blow to the state’s economy.

Nevertheless, the missile attacks seriously worsen the living conditions in Israel: schools and daycare centers are being closed down, as well as some enterprises. The Israeli government understands that unless something changes the people’s patience would soon expire. Tehran also understands that.

Iran launches secret talks with the West promising to close down its nuclear program in exchange for lifting the sanctions and help in restoration of their economy. But at the same time Iran insists that is has a right to deliver strikes against Israel as these would be only response attacks. The West is ready to accept Iran’s offer, but it demands Tehran to stop the attacks against Israel.

In the end a wide international summit is held, and the conflict parties sign a treaty. Iran and Israel remain enemies but the level of international tension drops considerably, while the oil prices return to normal.

The main conclusion that can be drawn from this ‘role play game’ seems to reflect the reality: the face-off between Israel and Iran won’t turn into a new world war, as there are no forces in the world interested in such a war.