To save Sarkozy

By Orkhan Sattarov, exclusively to VK

The first round of the French presidential elections started on April 22. But all observers agree that it will be the second round due to be held on May 6 that will define the future of the country. Then the French presidential race comes to its climax, and the heat of the EU political situation increases. The outcome of the French elections is very important, first of all, to the leading European country – Germany. The Chancellor of Germany, Angela Merkel, stakes on the acting President as she managed to find an understanding with him on all principle issues of Euro-zone anti-crisis policy.

The ruling German party, the CDU declared that in the end of the last year: its Secretary General said that ‘Sarkozy is the right person for the Élysée, and will remain the right person in the future”. This support of the candidature of Sarkozy can be explained not only be the CDU’s concern about the European general good: there is a trans-national rivalry between conservators and socialists in the EU. And while German SPD is catching up with the ruling CDU, Sarkozy’s main rival is also socialist François Hollande. French parliamentary elections are due to be held in June, and the socialists have good chances to replace conservators both in governmentте and in the Parliament. Moreover, Sarkozy’s party ‘Union for a Popular Movement’ come a cropper during the recent municipal elections.

According to the public opinion polls, Sarkozy is 10% behind his main rival, Hollande. Both candidates will definitely participate in the second round. So the main strife will be for the votes of the partisans of the discharge candidates. For example, 10% of French voters support the candidate of the ‘democratic movement’, François Bayrou. According to the President’s administration Bayrou has declined the offer to become the PM of the new Sarkozy government, however, he is also known to dislike ‘demagouge’ Hollande.

Acording the the experts, the opinion of the voters will be seriousely influenced by the outcome of the first round of the elections. However, this development is unlikely to be in the favour of the acting Presdient. He was recently delivered a serious blow by members of his own team : a number of his ex-ministers have openly declared that they are going to vote for Hollande.

Experts agree that Sarkozy’s position is very unstable, which makes the Presdient resort extremes in order to win the voters’ support. For example, some experts attibute a ‘pre-election’ meanng to the failed bill of ‘Armenian genocide denial criminalization’. However, teh votes of 500,000 of ethnic Armenians can’t change the general situation. Moreover, some representatives of the Armenian diaspora in France have declared that they’ll vote for Holland as it’s Sarkozy’s falt that the bill eventually failed.

For now Sarkozy resorts to well-proven populist rhetoric and calls on more strict migration laws. These addresses are called to win the sympathies of the ultra-right partisans of Marine Le Pen. In this regard Sarkozy got unexpected help from Germany: the Germany’s Interior Minister supported the idea on the ‘inner-Shengen control’ in his interview to the Rheinische Post, making Germany the third major EU country (after Italy and France) that expressed its discontent with the policy of open borders within the Union. According to the German Minister, even though the issue of borders transparency is important, the issues of each state’s inner security are of greater priority.

It is interesting to mention that the last year, when Dania introduced border control, the same Minister harshly criticized this decision. However, it is obvious that that 30-day border control won’t be able to resolve the problem of illegal migration within the Union, so it seems that France and Germany are merely conducting a joint populist maneuver to consolidate French acting President’s position. The real effect of the suggested measures remains to be seen, however, the growth of the ultra-right tendencies within the EU public opinion is already becoming a matter of concern for many experts: the threat of Fascism reincarnation has never been so real before.

Of course, despite all the efforts of the German government, it is the French people that make the final decision. And it is yet unknown whether Germany will be able to assure the victory of its favourite. There is a hope that the French people will be the first ones to say ‘no’ to the growing ultra-right populism that floods Europe.