George Kalatozishvili, Tbilisi. Exclusively for VK
Just a few days are left before the announcement of the new Cabinet of Ministers of Ivanishvili. The former authorities claim that "Georgian Dream" is taking over a country without the slightest budgetary arrears on social obligations, which means that the new government will not be able to refer to a "difficult heritage."
The fulfilment of election promises in the social sector is a key challenge for Bidzina Ivanishvili and his team and will affect their future legitimacy.
During the election campaign the "Georgian Dream" coalition of Ivanishvili and the United National Movement of Mikhail Saakashvili made generous promises. The main topic was the social sphere. The "social programs" of the parties had significant differences. The promises of the UNM were in fact a skilled and cunning "libertarian" attempt to deceive the category of voters that made a simple choice based on attempts to satisfy their basic needs. In fact, the "national party" did not promise much. For example, the former prime minister Vano Merabishvili stated that "in the next 4 years $3 billion will be spent on social needs. In agriculture 500 new companies will appear and each family will receive a voucher for 600 dollars to cover utility bills and textbooks for children." It sounded very good, but in reality three billion dollars is only the sum of the current budget spending in the years of 2012-2016 years and 500 agricultural enterprises is a project of attracting investment without any government subsidies. At the same time, a voucher for $600 for a family for a period of four years means only two dollars per person per month.
But the majority of voters did not believe the UNM, they believed "Georgian Dream", which promised to increase pensions from 60 to 140 dollars, that is to the minimum living wage, health insurance for all and a billion dollars to subsidize agriculture by issuing long-term interest-free loans to farmers. Moreover, Ivanishvili spoke about the possibility of cancelling or restructuring all outstanding mortgages.
Experts of the former ruling party estimated that to meet these promises, Ivanishvili will need at least $2.2 billion already in the next budgetary year.
Where will Ivanishvili find such a sum of money? Some people believe he is going to personally subsidize the state budget. Of course, his capital of 5.5 billion dollars could allow him to close the gaps in the state budget, but the assumption that Ivanishvili will spend his own money on welfare payments without any prospects of its return seems rather naive.
A prominent businessman, the chief architect of Georgian reforms Kakha Bendukidze, caustically remarked: "If Ivanishvili intends to replace the state budget with his own capital, that is up to him, but what is going to happen to the state when his capital is gone?"
Ivanishvili's opponents, among whom Bendukidze is playing a significant role, are trying to establish a logical chain between the campaign promises of the billionaire and his expected pro-Russian policy. In turn, the "dreamers" are trying their best not to disappoint their supporters and promise to fulfil all promises step by step. To be fair, the UNM leaders could also have promised an increase in pensions (and then refer to the need for a "step by step" approach) but they chose a clever trick, by packaging "nothing" in a beautiful wrapping.
