By Vestnik Kavkaza
More than 10 documents were signed at the talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan. The sides signed the agreement on establishing a joined company in the marketing sphere, distribution between Rosneft and “Chalyk Holding”, the program of trade-economic and scientific-technological cooperation by 2015, and the statement between Rosatom and the Ministry of Energy of Turkey on the nuclear power station “Akkuyu.”
According to observers, today Turkey has torn its contacts with all old allies and acts as a powerful and independent state with superpower ambitions. The South Caucasus is an area of crossing Russian-Turkish interests. Experts don’t exclude that Ankara’s influence in the Caucasus will continue growing for account of Russia, while energy transit corridors and geopolitical buffers which Turkey gets in return for its investments can become a first step toward the system of regional influence.
Alexei Mukhin, head of the Political Information Center, told Vestnik Kavkaza about Russian-Turkish relations and Russian problems in the South Caucasus: “The problem which appeared earlier is that Russian-Azerbaijani and Russian-Armenian relations have been observed from the perspectives of the rival sides, i.e. we communicated with Azerbaijan through Armenia and with Armenia through Azerbaijan. I think the way of settling the problem is very easy – we have to establish bilateral relations and resolve problems, considering the national interests of two, rather than three sides. Otherwise we are doomed to so-called mediatorship, i.e. political mediation which means that the mediator benefits the most and insists on following its interests first of all. Elimination of the United States from the mediators is an urgent task for the Russian authorities. But we cannot eliminate the US from the region, neither technically nor politically. Therefore, we have to build bilateral relations.
That is the most important task in the near future. From this point of view, the elections in Azerbaijan are a fragile moment, but Russia believes that the strongest should win and we will work with the winner. I think this principle is the most effective. My experience of communication with Turkish experts shows that Turkey sees itself as the Ottoman Empire, and they use the term. I believe they make a mistake which was made by some Soviet imperialists who live in illusions of the past. Turkey will appear to be a hostage of this image and will spend a lot of resources on supporting this image. I don’t think this course will satisfy the Turkish authorities in the end. However, these ideas enable it to consolidate the nation and support the political regime which they have.
For Russia and other countries which are not interested in a strengthening of Turkey in the region, the news is good, as Turkey digresses for “an important subject.” It is obvious that Russia should improve itself rather than weaken its rival for being a successful competitor to Turkey in the Caucasus. However, this factor is important too. We have to define clear priorities in the region and support establishing groups and points of influence in the regions. For example, Russia recognized Abkhazia as an independent state, i.e. Russia has taken all political risks, but the results are exploited by Turkey only, which is successfully developing infrastructure, business, logistics, and so on. God forbid that the Caucasus be used as a trump, a bargaining chip or a factor influencing the internal situation in Russia. I think striving to freeze the situation, to stabilize the Caucasus, which dominates the activities of the Russian authorities, protects Russia from serious global shocks, in comparison with which Bolotnaya Square and Sakharov Avenue are childish.
I believe the Russian opposition has neither the desire nor the possibility to play the Caucasian card. Such an opportunity belongs to radical nationalist groups, but they are small at the moment. The situation is controlled by the law-enforcement agencies, and we shouldn’t expect any serious threat from them.”
