Viktoria Panfilova, NG’s observer. Exclusively to Vestnik Kavkaza
The results of a survey conducted by the National Democratic Institute (USA) three months ahead of the presidential elections has stirred up Georgia. Representatives of political circles and civil society gave ambiguous reactions, and it could be indirect confirmation that a second round of elections will take place.
Today the candidate from the ruling coalition Georgian Dream (GD), Georgy Margvelashvili, is supported by 29% of the population. The second place with 10% is taken by the candidate from the United National Movement. He is the former speaker of parliament David Bakradze, who easily won three rounds of the party’s primaries. After him, there is a close group of other possible participants in the election campaign: the other former speaker Nino Burdzhenadze, the leader of Christian-Democratic Movement Georgy Targamadze, the chairman of the Labour Party Shalva Natelashvili and the former head of the Foreign Ministry Salomae Zurabishvili. Burdzhanadze’s rating has begun to grow – she attracts a part of the population that doesn’t like the UNM and is disappointed with Georgian Dream.
The results seem to reflect the political reality of Georgia. However, the participants of the elections are not happy with them. Shalva Natelashvili directly accused NDI of manipulating public opinion and GD and UNM of readiness to falsify the results of the future elections. He demanded amendments to the Electoral Code to provide all candidates with equal conditions. However, he didn’t give any details what should be changed. Nino Burdzhanadze is sure that she is supported by more people than 5%. “It seems the survey didn’t cover the social layers which are ready to vote for me on October 27,” she noted.
Of course it is too long until the elections, any survey is relative, and the situation can change, but it seems the presidential elections will probably have a second round. The main reason is that the favourite in the election race, representative of the ruling coalition Georgy Margvelashvili, will resign from his ministerial position, after which he will be associated with Ivanishvili’s team to a lesser extent.
In Georgia, Georgy Margvelashvili is associated with Ivanishvili. A voter is ready to vote for his team member, but there is a big difference between Margvelashvili who is a member of the government and Margvelashvili who is a presidential candidate. Moreover, he is not well-known in the Georgian provinces. So, considering the experience of previous years, the popularity of Margvelashvili will be falling.
Georgy Margvelashvili himself didn’t exclude the possibility of a second round, speaking on TV on Monday. Almost all local political scientists agree with his assessment. However, all of them said that anything could happen in the period left before the elections.
It seems a second round of elections would be most beneficial for President Mikheil Saakashvili. A second round will prolong his stay in office. Of course, it won’t be long, but it will enable him to represent Georgia at the Vilnius summit of the Eastern Partnership in November. This situation will hardly make Ivanishvili’s government happy – it is an object of Saakashvili’s criticism during his foreign trips. However, the new Georgian authorities will have to deal with that, because they promised to conduct the most democratic elections possible.
