By Vestnik Kavkaza
Yesterday President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovich discussed the situation in the country with his predecessors who headed the country in the post-Soviet period – Leonid Kravchuk, Leonid Kuchma, and Viktor Yushchenko. Interfax reported that Kravchuk and Kuchma told the current President that the free-will resignation of Premier could be a way out of the political crises. However Yanukovich doesn’t dare give Nikolai Azarov away.
Moscow experts say that the situation in Ukraine is very predictable. Alexei Mukhin, the head of the Center of Political Information, says that “if Ukraine wants to continue ‘Maidaning’, it has all rights to do it, because it is an independent state. At the same time I think it is very strange that declaration of Ukrainian independence is going on in the context of waiting for Catherine Ashton who would come, solve all problems, and calm down Ukrainian souls. The absence of real and effective mechanisms of solving problems in Ukraine means that Maidan is a disease and Ukraine suffers from it from time to time.”
According to Mukhin, in Russia there is an indifferent attitude to the Ukrainian events: “We don’t really care. Ukraine has to decide what it prefers; and she should prepare for the consequences which will definitely come after its decision. First of all, they should realize that the EU needs Ukraine just like it needs Greece, i.e. it doesn’t. Ukraine will demand money and visas. It will weaken the European Union, and if we look at this from a geopolitical point of view, the U.S. motivation is very transparent.”
At the same time, Russia needs Ukraine as a partner, as, according to Mukhin, “we are close to each other geopolitically; and our interests are similar in general. That’s why Russia abstracted away from the situation. But we feel a serious interest in Ukraine’s decision. If it chooses European integration in a complete version, it will face the consequences that Vladimir Putin defined; and the result will be another change of power in Ukraine.”
Mukhin thinks that Yanukovich will have to resign anyway, as he is in a dead-end situation: “Whatever he does, everything will be bad. Due to his actions, Ukraine is being torn apart. The absence of logical, right political decisions, which Yanukovich’s government and team demonstrated, will lead to a negative result for him. He has to show some achievements ahead of the presidential elections, early or regular. And now he is negotiating with Russia actively, it seems that he will probably agree on Russia’s conditions. It will enable him to take part in the next presidential election with some trumps.”
To solve the problem of Ukraine, subjects of the negotiations should be determined. In this context Mukhin paid attention to Ukrainian major property owners “who control Yanukovich’s team, first of all Renat Akhmetov, and other property owners who are oriented at other politicians, I mean Kuchma’s son-in-law Pinchuk and so on. The absence of any clear position of these people led to Maidan which would last until a crucial decision has been made. And it should be made not by politicians, but by major property owners of Ukraine.”
