By Vestnik Kavkaza
The Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov met the head of the opposition Syrian National Coalition Ahmad Jarba in Paris yesterday ahead of the international conference on Syria Geneva-2. This week, Lavrov is due to meet the Special Envoy of the UN and the Arab League on Syria, Lahdar Brahimi, the Foreign minister of France Laurent Fabius, the Foreign Minister of Jordan Naser Joda, and the Secretary of State of the USA Jhon Kerry.
The senior scientist, expert on problems of the Middle East of the Oriental Studies Institute of the RAS, Boris Dolgov, thinks that Geneva-2 is a sign that all countries which are somehow involved in the Syrian crisis and the situation over the Syrian crisis are ready for a political dialogue. But possible certain results of Geneva-2 are thought to be doubtful by Dolgov. He thinks that support of anti-government armed groups in Syria, there are more than 1000 of them which involve more than 70 000 militants, is cynical. “Several tens of thousands of the militants are foreign soldiers of fortune from Arab countries, the Arab Muslim world, Diasporas of Arab Europe, including Russia. Armed groups do not compromise, they don’t need Geneva-2. Their motto is military overthrow of Bashar Assad’s regime and establishing of an Islamic state on the territory of Syria. The idea is their keynote.”
“Even if Geneva-2 is to be held, all parties are to participate in it, including Iran, Turkey, representatives of the Syrian opposition, the foreign opposition, the National Coalition of Revolutionary Opposition Forces, and the internal opposition, and certain decisions are to be made, it is obvious that the situation when the armed conflict continues in Syria won’t give an opportunity to fulfill the decisions which would be made at Geneva-2,” Dolgov is sure.
He believes that “a part of forces involved into the Syrian conflict will boycott the conference. These will be armed groups, the National Coalition which still has no a united position, and certain persons, i.e. delegations which can take part in the conference.”
Speaking about participants of the conference, Dolgov noted: “Participation of Iran, as well as participation of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, is necessary. The Syrian crisis cannot be solved without Iran.”
The expert points out that the West supports the opposition less actively: “The USA declared that they stop military aid to certain groups; the EU says that it will deprive people who participated in the military conflict in Syria of their European citizenship. This is a new position, a change of the Western position toward the Syrian crisis.”
Answering Vestnik Kavkaza’s question on changes in the Turkish position on the Syrian crisis, Dolgov recalled a statement by the Turkish Foreign Minister that Ankara doesn’t support radical armed groups in Syria; Turkey is ready to take part in Geneva-2 conference. “But the changes in the position of Turkey cannot be called crucial,” the expert stated. “Armed anti-governmental groups in Syria are still supported from the territory of Turkey; and this is a key moment for success of Geneva-2. The political crisis in Turkey also influences the situation; and it is connected with the Turkish position on Syria. The position is more adequate toward Syria, i.e. striving for a political settlement will positively influence the internal situation in Turkey. It is obvious. We will hope the Turkish government will focus its energy on a political settlement of the Syrian crisis.”
