By Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan said at a meeting with members of the special commission for constitutional reforms (SCCR) on April 10 that he will never stand for president again. Back in autumn 2013, members of the ruling Republican Party (HHK) were not ruling out a switch to the parliamentary system after the 2017 parliamentary polls and chances that the president could become the head of the HHK proportional list and become the prime minister.
There was not a word about any plans for constitutional reforms in the president’s electoral programs in 2008 and 2013. The decision to pass reforms had been made on September 4, 2013, the day after Sargsyan announced plans to join the Customs Union. He passed a decree on formation of the SCCR and ordered the new commission to present a concept of constitutional amendments by April 20, 2014. The concept project was presented on April 10 and the project will be ready by July 1.
The process of reforming the Constitution is in no way related to the complicated political situation. Although both processes coincide in time, provoking speculations about the untimely and unjustified reforms in the context of a governmental crisis.
What has encouraged the president to make such a declaration and what are the real goals of the upcoming reform? The first goal is to transform Armenia from a presidential to a parliamentary republic. Hough such transformation without a firm political system can only bring constant instability comparable with that in Kyrgyzstan.
Why did Yerevan choose this specific model? Little Armenia is under great influence from foreign players, especially Russia and the US competing for the region. Washington wants all countries it does not control to face problems with political stability.
Another reason is that constitutional reforms are based on interests of Serzh Sargsyan who is trying to reproduce his power. This intention becomes more evident in the context of a declaration of Galust Saakyan, head of HHK parliamentary fraction. He said that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was still an unsettled issue and HHK was not planning to give away power.
Regarding lack of any presidential ambitions, Sargsyan noted that he would not stand for prime minister, should the country switch to a parliamentary system. Do many people believe in his assurances?
There is no clear answer how real realization of the project in Armenia, judging by the relative clarity of the goals of constitutional reforms. The Armenian National Congress (HAK) and Prosperous Armenia (BHK) will vote against the amendments without doubt. HAK has always been opposed to the parliamentary rule and BHK, according to its leader Gagik Tsarukyan, is against reform discussions at a moment “when the country has numerous unresolved problems.” Dashnaktsutyun has five mandates and the Heritage has four to support the parliamentary form of power they favour.
The Republican Party and its junior partner the Rule of Law have about 77-80 votes in total. They need 87 out of 131 votes to pass constitutional amendments. The government needs manipulations to gain the needed votes.
