By Vestnik Kavkaza
Yesterday, the heads of the Foreign Ministries of Russia, the USA, the EU and Ukraine spent more than seven hours in Geneva trying to find a way out of the Ukrainian crisis. As a result, Sergey Lavrov, John Kerry, Catherine Ashton, and Andrei Deshchitsa came to the conclusion that illegal groups should be disarmed, squares and streets should be abandoned, protesters should be amnestied, and a dialogue with the regions should be started within the constitutional process.
“Constitutional reform will take place without doubt in Ukraine, the rights of all the regions will be considered,” Lavrov promised.
However, Russian experts are not sure about it. “I wouldn’t underestimate the self-consciousness of the current Kiev authorities. We cannot hope for their adequacy in the global political sense. Ukraine is a subject of international relations. At the moment it is a united country. But the capacity of the Kiev leadership to influence the situation is not great,” Alexander Gushchin, the deputy head of the Post-Soviet Department of the RSUH, says. “A lot will depend on Moscow and Washington’s negotiations. The Kiev authorities are an instrument of Western policy, primarily Washington’s policy.”
Alexei Mukhin, Director of the Political Information Center, has the same view: “Disintegrated processes are launched all over the country. Unfortunately, only foreign forces can help Ukraine solve the urgent problem of sovereignty maintenance. How far is Russia ready to go to be a guarantor of Ukraine’s sovereignty? Our only ally could be the EU, which doesn’t want to support such a troublesome economy as Ukraine's. The recent steps taken by Germany on reverse gas confirm this. But due to the USA, Ukraine will saddle up the EU and its economy and become a heavy burden for it. And in this context the war between the dollar and the euro gains different shades.”
“The USA won’t feed the state or a unity of state formations. What is the EU’s goal in the situation? The EU counts on certain assets in Ukraine along with promoting stereotypes of democracy and other European values. I mean the pipeline system and major economic property. Russia is interested in a united and integral Ukrainian state, because if Ukraine collapses, Russia will be found guilty,” Mukhin thinks.
However, there is another reason that Moscow is interested in the territorial integrity of Ukraine. According to Mukhin, in the case of dissolution, Russia “will get several territories which have to be supported, it will be very expensive in the context of economic sanctions and political isolation. The only way to preserve the state is federalization, a change of the political system. A unitary state is not able to meet the demands of the territories which are united by the state. Ukraine has lived off grants from the West and the East for a long time. Most of the grants disappeared in Kiev and didn’t reach the regions. Federalization is the only way to build a fair financial system.”
