By Victoria Panfilova, Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov started a four-day visit to Turkey yesterday. He plans to discuss transportation of Turkmen gas to Europe through the territory of Turkey. Ankara hopes to increase its transit role in the energy sector of Europe, a task impossible without Turkmen hydrocarbons. During the visit, Berdimuhamedov will attend the 4th summit of heads of states of the Cooperation Council of Turkic States.
Cooperation between Ashkhabad and Ankara started after Turkmenistan became independent. The republic has over 600 Turkish companies specializing in electricity, construction, communications, the textile industry and agriculture. The energy sector is viewed as the most promising. Ankara signed the first deal on imports of 30 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas in 1997. The contract has not been realized because no pipeline has been built under the Caspian Sea. Major projects cannot be realized as long as the status of the sea remains undecided.
The situation around the Caspian has not changed in general, yet Ashkhabad and Ankara want to reanimate the project. The European Union is especially interested in it to reduce dependence on Russian energy resources. So the EU is lobbying for construction of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline. Ankara offers to become a transit country for Caspian energy carriers to Europe. Ashkhabad wants to export natural gas to the European market. Berdimuhamedov has said many times: “owning a quarter of the world’s gas resources and having an advantageous geographic position, Turkmenistan is ready to point gas streams in the directions needed.”
“Realization of the project will allow implementation of the idea to form a transcontinental energy link between Europe and Asia. This serves the interests of Turkmenistan, forming a multi-variant system for delivery of energy carriers to world consumer markets and the economic interests of Turkey and EU states, whose demand for energy resources will grow,” Turkmen sources say. The 300-kilometer pipeline from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan and then to Turkey and Europe remains the optimal solution.
However, construction of the pipeline under the Caspian Sea is dragging out because the sea has no status. The five Caspian states need a consensus to lift the problem. The fate of the gas pipeline remains uncertain. Nonetheless, in the light of the Ukrainian crisis, the European Union is becoming more persistent that the lack of status should not be a problem for realization of the energy project. The EU has renewed negotiations with Ashkhabad, Baku and Ankara and started a dialogue between them.
“Azerbaijan offers territory, transit potential and infrastructure for realization of the project,” said Rovnag Abdullayev, the head of the State Oil Company of the Azerbaijan Republic, after negotiations with President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov the previous month.
Ashkhabad still shows a reluctant reaction to the underwater pipeline project. Turkmenistan sticks to the strategy of readiness to export gas to any point of its border, leaving the further fate of the fuel at the discretion of the buyer.
Ismail Agakishiyev, president of the Analysis, Consulting, PR Union of Companies, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that exports of Turkmen gas through Turkey was an option to deliver energy carriers to the European market. “If Turkmenistan has real gas reserves, why would it not export them in Europe? But constructing the pipeline rests on determination of the Caspian's status. The pipeline will be built if Russia approves it,” said the expert. In his words, Russia insists that the pipeline construction needs the approval of all five Caspian states. Agakishiyev does not rule out that Ashkhabad and Baku could resolve the issue bilaterally, though not without the permission of Moscow.
“Russia may agree, because the volumes of Turkmen gas exports will be small and will not compete with it in Europe. The latest events in Ukraine show that if a transit state encounters problems, the problems start with deliveries. This is why involving Azerbaijan and Russia, for example, in the Trans-Caspian project would be logical. It is not only a matter of delivering energy resources, it is also a matter of geopolitics and geoeconomics, “ noted Agakishiyev. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline project is an example of mutually-beneficial cooperation. The pipeline was built bypassing Russia, so Russia started pumping oil through it, though in small volumes. Regarding the ecological risks of pipeline construction in the Caspian Sea, the expert calls it an excuse. “There are many pipelines running from fields to coasts both from Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, Russia, and nothing bad has happened,” said Agakishiyev. In his words, a purely political issue is disguised under ecology.
Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov will also discuss cooperation of Ashkhabad with Turkic states. “Turkmenistan has been partaking in the format represented by a presidential official, usually the speaker of parliament or vice prime minister. Partners of the union may now see Turkmenistan represented by the president of the country. It will reflect the image of the alliance of Turkic states. The format of meetings at this stage could be five-sided (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey, Kyrgyzstan), as Ilgar Velizadeh, the head of the South Caucasus Club of Political Analysts, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta.
