Will Ukraine have a new life?Mottos and the realityBy Vestnik KavkazaAfter the presidential elections and the victory of Pyotr Poroshenko, Ukraine will see significant changes. What is the new president? What will happen with the Maidan? How will accumulated problems be solved? Postislav Ischenko, an Ukrainian political scientist, and Leonid Vardomsky, the head of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the International Economic and Political Studies Department of the RAS Economics Institute, commented on developments in Ukraine.Rostislav Ischenko believes that the Maidan is beneficial for the USA: “I believe the sponsors of the action, i.e. the USA, don’t plan to dissolve the Maidan. They counted on Pyotr Poroshenko in the elections. He didn’t come from nowhere. He is a well-known politician. Everybody understands that he is a weak politician. In the current situation he has no forceful stand-by. He has no private army, like Kolomoisky, and he has no support among the militants of the Maidan. He has no moral weight. Before the USA became involved in this, Poroshenko’s rating was very low. They brought to power a man who has nothing to rely on – he has no team, no serious supporters who would take serious administration positions. He is alone. He is a person who has always wanted to be president; and finally he became president.”Ischenko thinks that “in this situation Nalivaichenko, who controls Right Sector, the majority of the Maidan’s militants and who is connected with the CIA directly, will be the man who will watch Poroshenko. Probably Andrei Poruby will play the same role, as he has been promised to be Defense Minister or maybe he will remain the secretary of the National Security Council. In fact, the title is not important; it is important that he controls the Maidan armed forces which are the only armed force in Kiev at the moment.” That is why the Ukrainian political scientist thinks the Maidan won’t be dissolved: “Yes, people in tents could be eliminated from Khreschatyk, a memorial to the Maidan could be built there, a museum or a zoo, as some former Maidan activists would probably live there. But the Maidan which made the overthrow, the militants of the Maidan won’t disappear, even if they become invisible. They will stay in Ukrainian politics. And any day these armed people can come to the governmental district and dictate their will or the will of their sponsors to Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk, the parliament, and whoever; because Ukraine has no legitimate military forces today. Poroshenko controls nobody.”Ishenko also says that Poroshenko won’t improve the economic situation in the country: “As for economic capacities and Poroshenko’s economic programme, one of the first decisions by the parliament after the overthrow was a decision on returning to the constitution of 2004. According to the constitution, presidential duties cover only control over military forces and international policy. In fact, Poroshenko’s functions include only the war in the East and getting loans from Western partners. Poroshenko cannot influence the economic sphere. He can only express his recommendations, address the government, but he cannot influence the situation. So all his statements on the topic are empty. As for the problems of the Ukrainian economy, I would ask Arseny Yatsenyuk what he is going to do, rather than Poroshenko.”According to Ischenko, reports on population’s wellbeing by the State Statistics Service are not truthful: “When Nikolai Azarov was the prime minister of Ukraine and published reports on the population’s wellbeing, I said that Azarov's problem was that people counted money not in his reports, but in their pockets. And reports by the Ukrainian Federal State Statistics Service and reality are often absolutely different things. So I believe the situation is not so positive.”However, Leonid Vardomsky, the head of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the International Economic and Political Studies Department of the RAS Economics Institute, thinks that Ukraine is far from a crisis. Vardomsky commented on Pyotr Poroshenko’s political programme: “In his pre-election programme “Living in a New Way” contains several provisions on the economy. Most of them state that Ukraine should integrate into the European economy. The second part is devoted to the development of agriculture and turning agriculture products into food products. It also concerns revival of the Ukrainian military industry. Of course there are goals on energy supply and power saving, shifting to power-saving technologies. That is all. These tasks were set even by Yushchenko. As they are relatives, I believe Poroshenko borrowed them from Yushchenko, refreshed the vocabulary and didn’t add anything new.” According to Vardomsky, stable development of industry and agriculture and the shadow economy, which is an airbag for ordinary people, protects Ukraine from collapse: “I should say when we speak about Ukraine’s collapse, that it is far from collapse, as it includes a financial aspect, banks, a budget, social finances, as industry is working and agriculture is working. The decrease of industry in the first quarter is about 5%, it is similar to last year's index; the decrease in GDP is 1-1.5%. However, the agricultural index grew. In Ukraine the shadow economy is very developed; huge amounts of money are being turned over outside the market, outside of any regulation. So the state could have problems with the state finances, but the population has a certain airbag in this sense. There are certain resources in the country, and I think Ukraine is fairly stable.
By Vestnik Kavkaza
After the presidential elections and the victory of Pyotr Poroshenko, Ukraine will see significant changes. What is the new president? What will happen with the Maidan? How will accumulated problems be solved? Postislav Ischenko, an Ukrainian political scientist, and Leonid Vardomsky, the head of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the International Economic and Political Studies Department of the RAS Economics Institute, commented on developments in Ukraine.
Rostislav Ischenko believes that the Maidan is beneficial for the USA: “I believe the sponsors of the action, i.e. the USA, don’t plan to dissolve the Maidan. They counted on Pyotr Poroshenko in the elections. He didn’t come from nowhere. He is a well-known politician. Everybody understands that he is a weak politician. In the current situation he has no forceful stand-by. He has no private army, like Kolomoisky, and he has no support among the militants of the Maidan. He has no moral weight. Before the USA became involved in this, Poroshenko’s rating was very low. They brought to power a man who has nothing to rely on – he has no team, no serious supporters who would take serious administration positions. He is alone. He is a person who has always wanted to be president; and finally he became president.”
Ischenko thinks that “in this situation Nalivaichenko, who controls Right Sector, the majority of the Maidan’s militants and who is connected with the CIA directly, will be the man who will watch Poroshenko. Probably Andrei Poruby will play the same role, as he has been promised to be Defense Minister or maybe he will remain the secretary of the National Security Council. In fact, the title is not important; it is important that he controls the Maidan armed forces which are the only armed force in Kiev at the moment.”
That is why the Ukrainian political scientist thinks the Maidan won’t be dissolved: “Yes, people in tents could be eliminated from Khreschatyk, a memorial to the Maidan could be built there, a museum or a zoo, as some former Maidan activists would probably live there. But the Maidan which made the overthrow, the militants of the Maidan won’t disappear, even if they become invisible. They will stay in Ukrainian politics. And any day these armed people can come to the governmental district and dictate their will or the will of their sponsors to Poroshenko, Yatsenyuk, the parliament, and whoever; because Ukraine has no legitimate military forces today. Poroshenko controls nobody.”
Ishenko also says that Poroshenko won’t improve the economic situation in the country: “As for economic capacities and Poroshenko’s economic programme, one of the first decisions by the parliament after the overthrow was a decision on returning to the constitution of 2004. According to the constitution, presidential duties cover only control over military forces and international policy. In fact, Poroshenko’s functions include only the war in the East and getting loans from Western partners. Poroshenko cannot influence the economic sphere. He can only express his recommendations, address the government, but he cannot influence the situation. So all his statements on the topic are empty. As for the problems of the Ukrainian economy, I would ask Arseny Yatsenyuk what he is going to do, rather than Poroshenko.”
According to Ischenko, reports on population’s wellbeing by the State Statistics Service are not truthful: “When Nikolai Azarov was the prime minister of Ukraine and published reports on the population’s wellbeing, I said that Azarov's problem was that people counted money not in his reports, but in their pockets. And reports by the Ukrainian Federal State Statistics Service and reality are often absolutely different things. So I believe the situation is not so positive.”
However, Leonid Vardomsky, the head of the Center for Post-Soviet Studies of the International Economic and Political Studies Department of the RAS Economics Institute, thinks that Ukraine is far from a crisis.
Vardomsky commented on Pyotr Poroshenko’s political programme: “In his pre-election programme “Living in a New Way” contains several provisions on the economy. Most of them state that Ukraine should integrate into the European economy. The second part is devoted to the development of agriculture and turning agriculture products into food products. It also concerns revival of the Ukrainian military industry. Of course there are goals on energy supply and power saving, shifting to power-saving technologies. That is all. These tasks were set even by Yushchenko. As they are relatives, I believe Poroshenko borrowed them from Yushchenko, refreshed the vocabulary and didn’t add anything new.”
According to Vardomsky, stable development of industry and agriculture and the shadow economy, which is an airbag for ordinary people, protects Ukraine from collapse: “I should say when we speak about Ukraine’s collapse, that it is far from collapse, as it includes a financial aspect, banks, a budget, social finances, as industry is working and agriculture is working. The decrease of industry in the first quarter is about 5%, it is similar to last year's index; the decrease in GDP is 1-1.5%. However, the agricultural index grew. In Ukraine the shadow economy is very developed; huge amounts of money are being turned over outside the market, outside of any regulation. So the state could have problems with the state finances, but the population has a certain airbag in this sense. There are certain resources in the country, and I think Ukraine is fairly stable.”
