By Vestnik Kavkaza
President of Iran Hassan Rouhani on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly confirmed that the IRI is ready to become a reliable gas exporter to Europe if sanctions against Tehran are eliminated and a modern gas pipeline built. In the context of tense relations with Russia due to the situation in Ukraine, the EU has started to search for alternative gas import sources. Iran owns 17% of the world's gas resources, and this could be a promising direction for Europe.
However, according to the Armenian political scientist Sergey Shakaryants, Iran and Russia are not rivals, but a common target for a combined attack by Western structures in the current geopolitical situation. “And all “compasses” of the South Caucasus are aimed at it – from the south, i.e. from the Middle East, and from the north, the Black Sea region. In this case, Russia and Iran will be involved in a so-called regional confrontation, spending their forces and resources on fighting fire nearby,” the political scientist is sure.
Shakaryants said there was an internal Russian-Iranian agreement, according to which gas exports to the West, Europe goes halves: “Iran exports gas through a pipeline which will pass through Syria, the Mediterranean region and to the Balkans; while Russia constructs the Nord and the South Streams. Thus, hydrocarbons are controlled by Russia and Iran. I wouldn’t call it a gas trust, but a fact is a fact.”
The political scientist thinks that the main protester against Iranian gas exports is the United States: “American air attacks on Syrian territory ruin all the plans on exporting Iranian gas to Western Europe. Everybody can see what is going on in Ukraine, and the assessment is quite fair. The Ukrainian situation is aimed at undermining everything that Russia has been preparing in the Western direction for many years.”
In the Caspian region Russia competes not only with the U.S., the EU, China, and Turkey, but also with Iran. The summit of the Caspian five countries, which will take place in Astrakhan on September 29th, is aimed at settlement of several issues, including cooperation between Moscow and Tehran and the legal status of the Caspian Sea.
Sergey Mikheyev, the Director of the Caspian Cooperation Institute, thinks that “the Caspian region (regarding relations between the Caspian states) is calm and stable, one of the most stable regions in Eurasia and even in the world. However, it is potentially a region of conflict.”
Mikheyev thinks that conflict points are problems of “oil and gas, the status, division of fields, water surface and bottom, and possible foreign influence”: “An attempt to settle interregional problems externally could lead to the destruction of the region… All five Caspian countries are potential candidates for implementation of scenarios of influence on internal policy for changing foreign policies… All five Caspian political regimes are threatened by organization of internal instability by foreign forces.”
Mikheyev is sure that the Caspian countries will have to develop joint response measures: “We suggest consideration of establishing a collective system of regional security as intergovernmental multifunctional forces of emergency response. It is not about establishing international forces, but consultation on the issue and reaching mutual understanding.”
