Susanna Petrosyan, Yerevan. Exclusively for Vestnik Kavkaza
See Armenia. One-man constitution 1
The constitutional reforms initiated by the authorities are becoming one of the central directions of the internal political life of Armenia. The process of discussing constitutional changes started a year ago. According to the plans, Armenia should transform from a presidential republic into a parliamentary-presidential republic; policies will be defined not by the president, but the prime minister, whose powers will be broadened. According to some mass media and opposition politicians, Serge Sargsyan plans to become the prime minister; according to other information which dominates today, the President intends to become the speaker and continue to head the RPA.
Meanwhile, the election programs of the President in 2008 and 2013 didn’t mention that he planned to conduct some constitutional reforms. According to some experts, the sudden turn to constitutional changes is connected with the end of his presidential term in 2018. Serge Sargsyan realizes that the problem of his political future must be resolved. The opposition and some observers are sure that the upcoming changes are the main weapon for prolonging Sargsyan’s power; according to the current Constitution, one person has no right to be elected president for more than two terms in succession.
“Serge Sargsyan wants to undertake another adventure in Armenia, trying to provide constitutional changes. The goal is clear – to reproduce his power in the status of “Secretary General” of the Republican Party,” thinks Karen Akopdzhanyan, an observer of Zham.am, calling the changes “a one-man constitution.”
“The constitutional amendments are a bluff. Serge Sargsyan is trying to mask his intention to maintain power,” thinks Aram Manukyan, the secretary of the ANC. According to him, if Sargsyan doesn’t provide constitutional reforms before the next elections, it will lead to the collapse of his team. Some experts believe that constitutional reforms could become a constraining factor for possible centrifugal processes in the authorities’ camp ahead of the end of Sargasyan’s presidential term.
However, in the process of providing reforms there are two problems. The first one is directly connected with the President’s team. Serge Sargsyan’s plan for prolonging his power is unclear and indistinct to the representatives of the criminal oligarch system. Probably it would be more understandable for them if the project was called “a political successor”, which was used by former president Robert Kocharyan; it is well-known that his political successor is the current president. The first president Levon Ter Petrosyan called the attempt at prolonging Sargsyan’s power by means of constitutional changes a fatal mistake which proves that the head of the state is detached from reality.
The second factor is connected with necessary resources for fulfillment of the difficult project chosen by the President. So, before approval of these amendments at a referendum, Sargsyan needs the approval of the National Assembly. However, the President doesn't have the necessary 2/3 of the votes, or more than 80 votes from 131. Today the RPA faction has 70 seats, and the gap between it and opposition forces is minimal. This will be a serious obstacle for fulfillment of the project initiated by the authorities.
