In the mid-2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) proclaimed the formation of a caliphate on the territories it controlled in Iraq and Syria. Despite the heroic efforts of the Kurds, who are holding the militants off, and air raids by the U.S. and allies carried out in Syria and Iraq since September 23, the caliphate still controls vast territories. Ahmet Yarlykapov, a senior scientist of the RAS Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, has described the way ISIS recruits militants, the potential of expansion of its social base in Russia and the threats Russia may face from those who return from the caliphate.
The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant declared in 2013 suddenly became the most successful Islamic project. The territory controlled by the organization is comparable with that of Great Britain. It is quite a serious structure and should not be underestimated, according to Yarlykapov.
Some of the militants in the ranks of ISIS are natives of the North Caucasus. “I would like to consider some contacts with the North Caucasus and the repercussions. Firstly, in 2013 the so-called “call” was made, when a proclaimed caliph said that everyone must join the Jihad on the territory the caliphate was trying to control. The call was provoked by rising Muhajir sentiment in the North Caucasus, among the belligerents, those who fought on the side of the so-called Caucasus Emirate and among wider circles of Salafis,” Yarlykapov explained.
“The call and the intention to pump Muhajir sentiment are unsurprising, because the new caliphate, Islamic State, needs cannon fodder and a constant flow, the Muhajir sentiment was deliberately pumped all the time, using the Internet too. The call was addressed right after the declaration of Islamic State, and those fighting in the North Caucasus took the call quite seriously. The Caucasus Emirate is practically out of people. Leaders of the emirate admit it and say that they have very serious problems because practically everyone went to the territory of Syria and Iraq. Salafis themselves and people close to the movement estimate that 7-10% of people fighting for Islamic State are North Caucasians. Even if we take the minimum figure of 20,000-30,000, we get at least 2,000 people from the North Caucasus fighting in the ranks of Islamic State,” the expert noted. According to his information, North Caucasians from other regions of Russia, Khanty-Mansiysk, for instance, are joining Islamic State.
Yarlukapov doubts that the population of the North Caucasus would join Islamic State in the future: “The ceiling has been reached, people willing to leave and join have already left and joined. In other words, the North Caucasus is hardly bringing any new participants to the movement.” Yarlykapov sees a threat in the return of extremists to Russia: “People moving there are settling there. Residential areas populated by natives of the North Caucasus have appeared. They form settlements there, they settle there. And, by the way, there is a very interesting method of work: the Dagestani authorities, for example, send people there to persuade them to stay there. In other words: “Guys, since you have left, just stay there and don't return.” It is indeed a very promising method of work, because the return of these people is the biggest threat for Russia. Islamic State has gained no mass support among the population in the North Caucasus. Look at the fate of the Caucasus Emirate that has degraded to the level of a terrorist network. They have never even controlled a territory, unlike Islamic State that controls huge territories. In other words, the ideas are absolutely unpopular in the North Caucasus. But the threat of terrorist acts is the main threat we can expect from people returning from Islamic State.
Is Islamic State the most successful Islamic project today?In the mid-2014, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) proclaimed the formation of a caliphate on the territories it controlled in Iraq and Syria. Despite the heroic efforts of the Kurds, who are holding the militants off, and air raids by the U.S. and allies carried out in Syria and Iraq since September 23, the caliphate still controls vast territories. Ahmet Yarlykapov, a senior scientist of the RAS Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, has described the way ISIS recruits militants, the potential of expansion of its social base in Russia and the threats Russia may face from those who return from the caliphate.The Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant declared in 2013 suddenly became the most successful Islamic project. The territory controlled by the organization is comparable with that of Great Britain. It is quite a serious structure and should not be underestimated, according to Yarlykapov.Some of the militants in the ranks of ISIS are natives of the North Caucasus. “I would like to consider some contacts with the North Caucasus and the repercussions. Firstly, in 2013 the so-called “call” was made, when a proclaimed caliph said that everyone must join the Jihad on the territory the caliphate was trying to control. The call was provoked by rising Muhajir sentiment in the North Caucasus, among the belligerents, those who fought on the side of the so-called Caucasus Emirate and among wider circles of Salafis,” Yarlykapov explained.“The call and the intention to pump Muhajir sentiment are unsurprising, because the new caliphate, Islamic State, needs cannon fodder and a constant flow, the Muhajir sentiment was deliberately pumped all the time, using the Internet too. The call was addressed right after the declaration of Islamic State, and those fighting in the North Caucasus took the call quite seriously. The Caucasus Emirate is practically out of people. Leaders of the emirate admit it and say that they have very serious problems because practically everyone went to the territory of Syria and Iraq. Salafis themselves and people close to the movement estimate that 7-10% of people fighting for Islamic State are North Caucasians. Even if we take the minimum figure of 20,000-30,000, we get at least 2,000 people from the North Caucasus fighting in the ranks of Islamic State,” the expert noted. According to his information, North Caucasians from other regions of Russia, Khanty-Mansiysk, for instance, are joining Islamic State.Yarlukapov doubts that the population of the North Caucasus would join Islamic State in the future: “The ceiling has been reached, people willing to leave and join have already left and joined. In other words, the North Caucasus is hardly bringing any new participants to the movement.” Yarlykapov sees a threat in the return of extremists to Russia: “People moving there are settling there. Residential areas populated by natives of the North Caucasus have appeared. They form settlements there, they settle there. And, by the way, there is a very interesting method of work: the Dagestani authorities, for example, send people there to persuade them to stay there. In other words: “Guys, since you have left, just stay there and don't return.” It is indeed a very promising method of work, because the return of these people is the biggest threat for Russia. Islamic State has gained no mass support among the population in the North Caucasus. Look at the fate of the Caucasus Emirate that has degraded to the level of a terrorist network. They have never even controlled a territory, unlike Islamic State that controls huge territories. In other words, the ideas are absolutely unpopular in the North Caucasus. But the threat of terrorist acts is the main threat we can expect from people returning from Islamic Sta
