By Victoria Panfilova, a columnist of Nezavisimaya Gazeta
Turkmen President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov concluded his two-day visit to Turkey yesterday. At a meeting with his counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan, he discussed transit of Turkmen gas to Europe. Ankara hopes to boost its transit potential using Turkmen hydrocarbons. "Turkmenistan is the key state for transport of gas from Central Asia to the European market," said President Erdogan at a press conference with Berdimuhamedov in Ankara.
The Turkish leader, according to Anadolu, noted that Turkmenistan was working on making gas supplies to the EU possible. Erdogan reminded that Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and Turkey were regularly meeting and discussing joint projects. In his words, their meeting this year will take place in Ashkhabad.
Energy independence from Russian gas would be a very complicated goal for Europe without Turkmen gas. The energy program of the European Union recently presented mentions Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan. The EU has been working with Baku for quite a while, agreements are yet to be made with Ashkhabad.
Experts say that Turkey has sufficient political influence in the region and good relations with all members of the gas alliance, allowing it to become a mediator in negotiations between Ashkhabad, Baku and Brussels.
Ankara and Ashkhabad started cooperating in 1997. They signed the first agreement on imports of 30 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas. The contract has not been realized due to the undecided status of the Caspian Sea. The problem hinders the construction of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline. On the other hand, the situation has hardly changed in the last two decades. The pipeline construction under the Caspian Sea dragged out because the water body has no status. The five Caspian states need to find a compromise in order to resolve the problem, but that will not happen any time soon. The European Union assures with increasing frequency that the lack of status of the Caspian Sea should not be an obstacle for realization of the Trans-Caspian Pipeline project and resumed negotiations with Ashkhabad, Baku and Ankara, encouraging their dialogue.
Maros Sefcovic, the vice president of the European Commission for energy affairs, discussed a preliminary deal on Turkmen gas supplies to Europe at a meeting with Turkmen Ambassador to Belgium Kakajan Mommadov last week. After the meeting, the Turkmen Ministry for Industry and Mineral Resources reported that the country could supply the European market with 10-30 billion cubic meters of gas a year.
Turkmenistan needs to join the Trans-Anatolia Pipeline (TANAP) project, which will be launched in 2018. TANAP stipulates transporting Azerbaijani gas to Europe through Turkey within the framework of the Southern Gas Corridor. TANAP will have a capacity of 16 billion cubic meters a year. With Turkmen gas, the project would require construction of additional compression systems. Financing of the project in the light of the crisis remains vague. Participation of Turkmenistan in the project, say experts, may become the start of an alliance of Ankara, Ashkhabad and Baku. Especially considering that Turkmenistan has been delivering oil through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Pipeline since 2010.
Ismail Agakishiyev, the head of the "Analysis, Consulting PR" Union of Companies, told Nezavisimaya Gazeta that exports of Turkmen gas through Turkey were a variant to deliver energy to the European market. The expert supposes that the issue has been over-politicized. "Russia is the leader in the post-Soviet space, and its goal is to strengthen relations with CIS countries.
Turkey is transforming into an energy hub and is interested in increasing the volumes of gas transit. Turkmenistan has gas that needs selling. If the countries have economic interests, then political issues, delimitation of the Caspian being the main one, will be resolved. The pipeline under the Caspian will be built if Russia and other Caspian countries give approval," Ismail Agakishiyev told NG.
Shokhrat Kadyrov, a leading scientist of the RAS Institute of Oriental Studies, noted in an interview with NG that "Turkmenistan have never refused to discuss the projects of its hydrocarbon supplies with Europe, not to mention rejecting the project."
"Ashkhabad and Baku may successfully resolve the problem bilaterally, especially when relations between Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan have greatly improved in the last years. Especially when Turkmenistan encountered problems with gas supplies to Russia, which has cut purchase volumes to 4 billion cubic meters this year, despite the long-term agreement signed earlier. The crisis in Russia has had a negative impact on the domestic economic situation in Turkmenistan. The development of relations with China that Ashkhabad had relied on has halted due to the fact that Russia supplies the Celestial Empire with its gas. Hence the actualization of the problem of gas supplies to Europe through Azerbaijan," Kadyrov told NG.
The expert considers that "if Russia approaches the issue constructively, gas agreements may theoretically be revised, and gas will be delivered from Russia to Turkmenistan, not from Turkmenistan to Russia, to get dividends from the Trans-Caspian gas Pipeline. It is important to understand that the project would hardly be realized without Russia. The initiative to add it to the agenda comes from Europe in the context of the complications in Ukraine, Russia and Europe are interested in resolving the problem. That is why we should expect Russia to be more flexible in the new conditions and accept the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline project. It would allow it to normalize relations with Europe, strengthen ties with Turkmenistan, stabilize the situation in the Caucasus, and soften the economic crisis in general," said Kadyrov.
The expert reckons that Russia needs economic interests in Turkmenistan. "Of course, 4 billion dollars of trade turnover is not bad, Russia does not have any single major, long-term projects in Turkmenistan. The Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline and delivery of Turkmen and Russian gas to Europe create such an opportunity," noted Shokhrat Kadyrov.
