By Vestnik Kavkaza
The business magazine Forbes writes today that Russia's international reserves are beginning to increase. Despite numerous statements by Western media that Moscow is too weak and does not have foreign exchange reserves, it is not true in fact. Of course, the economy is still in a rather inconsistent state, but despite the presence of negative trends, positive changes are beginning to dominate. The latest data of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation shows that since mid-April the international reserves of the country are increasing steadily, despite the fluctuations of exchange rates and the relatively cheap price of oil.
The Russian government has managed to stop inflation and increase the level of industrial production, those indicators which have threatened the economy since the end of last year. The possibility of further negative fluctuations is still quite high, but the Russian leadership proved that it has all the necessary resources to cope with all kinds of economic problems. A policy of import substitution was promoted and began to be implemented after the imposition of sanctions against Russia; an expansion of the economic and strategic partners through the development of new regions helps Russia to maintain balance. These measures are slow but helpful in preventing a crisis which seemed to be inevitable and disastrous for Moscow at the beginning of this year.
The analytical publication Business Insider writes about the situation in Macedonia, a country where political instability makes both Europe and Russia nervous. Over the weekend a number of anti-government protests took place in the Republic of Macedonia, which is openly friendly to Russia. The Balkan state does not support the Western sanctions against Russia and is ready to contribute to the project of construction of a Russian gas pipeline through its territory. If the project is implemented, Europe risks losing its chance of getting rid of its gas dependance on Russia.
According to some analysts, Macedonia is the best place for the expansion of the energy infrastructure, but if the current government changes to a pro-Western one, the chances of the country's cooperation with Russia will sharply reduce. The main task is to prevent a recurrence of the so-called "Ukrainian scenario" – a change of government, which may lead to new geopolitical challenges and further aggravate relations between the West and Russia.
So far, the current government of Macedonia has managed to maintain balance in an unstable region, where many residents have expressed dissatisfaction, especially with the territorial division of the Balkan Republics. The European Community, in spite of their fear of energy dependence on Russia, should understand that a "Ukrainian scenario" in terms of the Balkan region could lead to a large-scale military confrontation in Central Europe, which in turn will shake the already precarious status of the European Union, many members of which are not satisfied with the policy of their leadership. Most likely, the conflict in Macedonia will be resolved peacefully, but once again this proves that the leverage applied on Russia plays against the initiators themselves.
The international journal Natural Gas Europe, specializing in analysis of the energy sector of the global economy, writes about the prospects of providing gas to Europe bypassing Russia. Which countries can use Turkey as a bridge to bring Caspian and Middle Eastern gas to Europe? A majority of analysts agree that Turkey is the only option for gas transit, especially if we talk about Azerbaijan and the Southern Gas Corridor. The construction of the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline has been initiated already, which will bring the South Caucasus gas pipeline to the Turkish-Greek border, which in turn will provide a source of energy to Italy. In addition, there are signed contracts on gas supplies to Greece and Bulgaria. That is, by 2019, 10 billion cubic meters of Azerbaijani gas will be supplied annually to the European market. However, this is not enough. The possibility of increasing the volume of deliveries will depend on the decision of the Azerbaijani government, the technical capabilities and resources of the country.
Turkmenistan, in turn, has large gas reserves and can also use Turkey for transit, but there are a number of constraints. First of all, the gas fields in Turkmenistan have not yet been developed enough, and for their operation a lot of money may be needed, which Europe is not ready to invest, despite their attempts to get out of dependence on Russian gas. The second factor standing in the way of Turkmen gas is the disagreement on the Caspian region, where Russia and Iran have more influence than Turkmenistan. These reasons have forced the country to orient more towards the Chinese than the European market.
Another contender for the supply of gas to Europe is Iran. But then again, analysts said, with regard to Iran today there are more questions than decisions taken. Due to international sanctions Iran's gas market is not developing fast enough. Moreover, even if sanctions are lifted in the near future, it is more likely that Iran will provide for the primarily domestic market, pushing Europe's priorities to the background.
There is another country, Iraq. Its government recently announced that the territory of Kurdistan has gas reserves estimated at between 3 and 6 trillion cubic meters. But the geopolitical situation in the region is unlikely to improve in the near future, so Europe cannot rely on Iraq either.
There is Israel, whose reserves exceed 1 trillion cubic meters. However, numerous investment scandals, as well as the gas infrastructure being not developed enough, cannot be a guarantor of European energy independence. To date, the only real source of gas may become Azerbaijan, which is the closest partner of Russia.
