Professor Gurban Yetermishvili, the head of the Azerbaijani Seismological Research Center, explains to VK why it is impossible to predict where and when an earthquake will strike.
- Over the past few years the number of catastrophic earthquakes has increased dramatically: Haiti, Argentina, Iran, Japan… Is there any connection between all these cataclysms?
- Many scientists warn us about alarming changes in the Earth’s environment. All these seismic events are caused by the current activization of geo-dynamic processes – a new cycle in Earth’s geological history. The exact nature of all the above mentioned quakes is different, but the results are the same.
- A considerable number of earthquakes have occurred in Azerbaijan over the past few months. What’s causing this activity?
- Azerbaijan is in a seismic region. The last massive destructive earthquake happened in 2000. Our Center registers some 4000 tremors each year, most of them are very feeble. The number of these tremors in Azerbaijan didn’t increase in these months, it’s just that our equipment became more accurate.
Tectonic activity in the Caucasus is conditioned by a whole series of factors connected with global seismic developments. The peak of this activity can be predicted, and at the moment there are no signs of it coming.
- Some experts say that oil and gas production can create hollow spaces deep within the earth, and that causes soil tremors. Is this true for Azerbaijan?
- Well, we produce oil from a 5-6 km depth, while earthquake epicenters are located as deep as 30-50 km. The quakes are due to tectonic movements. Azerbaijan should be interested in researching the effects of passive seismicity on the oil and gas output of certain layers. As for the ‘hollows’ – we don’t have this problem as we pump water solutions in place of processed gas or oil to maintain the pressure. So there can be no earthfalls there. Of course, water decreases the durability of rock, so a little increase in the seismicity of oil-producing regions is possible. However, our network of research facilities, created in co-operation with SOCAR, gives us the opportunity to predict even the smallest tremors. We plan to open three more facilities in the Caspian region this year. This region is strategically important for Azerbaijan, but it’s also a source of seismic danger for Baku.
- What is your Center doing to increase the accuracy of earthquake prognosis?
- We have 30 stations equipped with ‘
Кinemetrics’ systems – this is the top technology in the field, even Japan uses it. It is capable of registering the slightest tremors. We also monitor geomagnetic and gravitational and geo-chemical fields. We opened two new facilities in Nakhichvan region this year.
- What do you do to predict quakes more accurately? What parameters form the prognosis?
- There are usually three of them: time, location and magnitude. There’s a lot of progress, but no one is yet capable of predicting all three parameters accurately. You can’t predict one specific earthquake, so no one’s secure from earthquake shocks. All we can do is hold drilling exercises for emergency rescue teams, it is especially important if they’ll have to deal with oil spills caused by, say, a 6-point quake in the Caspian region. We conducted such a drill just recently.
- Some animals are known to feel oncoming quakes. Can they be used for prognosis?
- Dogs, pigs, chicken, rats, turtles and snakes are known to develop restless behaviour just before a quake. I’ll also mention the mass fish death on March 8 in California Bay. It’s somehow connected to the consequent quake in Japan – the fish tried to avoid seismic danger and filled the bay, where they died of lack of oxygen. Some waves produced by massive earthquakes are extremely harmful to sea creatures, so they all try to avoid these zones – and due to the panic of these migrations, there are cases of mass deaths.
A few days before the deadly shocks in New Zealand, more than a hundred whales threw themselves on the shore. After the events in Japan some press-agencies reported that on the eve of the disaster fishermen saw some deepwater fish species near the surface. A Japanese legend has it that these fish surface to warn people of coming earthquakes. Some reports say that this fish showed up before the Taiwanese and Chilean quakes.
However, no solid scientific progress is obtained in this sphere for now. It’s impossible to predict an earthquake because of the immense difficulty of the physical and mathematical multi-parameter calculations required.
- Does your Center work in cooperation with other countries’ seismic agencies?
- We cooperate with 14 countries in this field: Russia, Turkey, USA, Georgia, France, Bulgaria, Greece, Iran, Italy, Spain, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan. We also participate in some NATO projects. Our Center is a member of several international organizations: IRIS, Orfeus, CSEM.
Interview by Ramin Nazieov, Baku. Exclusively to VK
